4401 Jay Rd · Snowflake, AZ 85937

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1978 11 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This great home offers something for everyone. The 1500 square feet plus the 10+ acres allows room for everyone. The property is close to town and dirt roads access with all the privacy you desire. Power with a private well is a great blend of convenience. Acreage to plant your garden for additional self-sustained living. This home is priced to sell and a great way to build quick equity. Call today for showings.

Key facts

• Close to town
• Private well
• 10 acres

Tags

• 10 ACRES
• PRIVATE WELL
• DIRT ROADS ACCESS
• CLOSE TO TOWN
• PLANT YOUR GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 10.55 acres; Zoned residential; Allows raising horses; No road maintenance; Trees on property; Property does not lease land
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Has a garage; One attached carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Private well (water available); APS electric service with individual meter; Propane with leased tank; Power available
• Home design: Site-built home; One story; Pitched shingle roof
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Barn/stable; Additional outbuilding; Wire fence; Private-adjoining property

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Shower; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Woodstove fireplace; Carpet and tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Utility room for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (45.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Snowflake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#46 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Snowflake Unified District (4391) (town): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #36 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $250k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $137,469 (45.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $110,431
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $345,079
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85937

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,883

Max offer price $178,996

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 415-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,650 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$777/yr (+$65/mo · 89.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,320
• − Management: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$9,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,290
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowflake Unified District (4391)
• NCES district ID: 0407820
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,767
• Composite: 45.91/100
• National rank: #2545
• State rank: #36 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Snowflake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #8817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,975

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.31%
• Current HPI: 480.9577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $250,000 WMMLS
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $280,000 WMMLS
• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $245,000 WMMLS
• 2003-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · +35.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.