329 E Sequoia St #14 · Valley Springs, CA 95252

$24,995

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1984 $28/sqft · 30% below area Est $36k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Valley Springs Mobile Home Park, a little slice of heaven just outside of downtown. Home site #14 is a 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Needs some updating, but overall, the home is in good condition.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1984
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#747 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Calaveras Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,245 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 211.77%
• DSCR: 10.42
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $35,500
• List price: $24,995
• Delta: -29.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
329 E Sequoia Ave #11	0.10mi	2/2.0	920 (+3%)	15mo	$74,000	$80	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.66×
• Total profit: $74,638
• Equity at exit: $3,727

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.78×
• Total profit: $166,392
• Equity at exit: $2,161

Cash invested: $6,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95252

• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $1,235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $24,995

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,252	-5% $1,244	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,226	+10% $1,218
Rent	-10% $1,094	-5% $1,165	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,305	+10% $1,376
Rate	-1.0pp $1,248	-0.5pp $1,241	base $1,235	+0.5pp $1,229	+1.0pp $1,222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,249
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $24,995 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,995 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $24,995 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $24,995 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $24,995 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $24,995 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $24,995 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $24,995 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $24,995 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $15,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,681
• After-tax cash flow: $11,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calaveras Unified
• NCES district ID: 0606870
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,559
• Composite: 20.06/100
• National rank: #8654
• State rank: #436 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Springs

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #747
• US rank: #21879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Springs, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,851

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.82%
• Current HPI: 203.4389
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B