419 Coleman St · Marlin, TX 76661

$49,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1970 6,621 sqft lot $36/sqft · 36% below area Est $78k · 36% under ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-family home situated on a spacious lot in an established Marlin neighborhood. This property offers approximately 1,404 sq ft of living space with a functional layout and solid potential for owner-occupants or investors. The home sits on a generous lot, providing ample outdoor space for parking, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near local schools, downtown Marlin, and major roadways. A great opportunity for renovation, rental income, or long-term investment. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Spacious lot
• Conveniently located

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.50%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,121
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -36.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
518 Clark	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,292 (-8%)	0mo	$89,900	$70	70
800 Chambers St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,428 (+2%)	10mo	$148,900	$104	69
501 San Antonio St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,408 (+0%)	10mo	$49,000	$35	66
413 Houghton Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,598 (+14%)	4mo	$115,000	$72	56
906 Gift St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,396 (-1%)	22mo	$85,000	$61	55
406 Gift Street St #1	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,209 (-14%)	8mo	$65,000	$54	55
704 Clark St	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	20mo	$165,000	$123	50
202 Shady St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,532 (+9%)	2mo	$10,000	$7	49
300 W Anders St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-1%)	21mo	$139,900	$101	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $46,689
• Equity at exit: $25,799

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.88×
• Total profit: $110,127
• Equity at exit: $42,599

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,773/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $545

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $602	+0% $588	+5% $574	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $486	-5% $537	+0% $588	+5% $639	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $601	base $588	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $562

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-02-23
    price $49,900 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Charming single-family home situated on a spacious lot in an established Marlin neighborhood. This property offers approximately 1,404 sq ft of living space with a functional layout and solid potential for owner-occupants or investors. The home sits on a generous lot, providing ample outdoor space for parking, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near local schools, downtown Marlin, and major roadways. A great opportunity for renovation, rental income, or long-term investment. Property is being sold as-is.

17. 2026-02-16
    price $53,900 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Charming single-family home situated on a spacious lot in an established Marlin neighborhood. This property offers approximately 1,404 sq ft of living space with a functional layout and solid potential for owner-occupants or investors. The home sits on a generous lot, providing ample outdoor space for parking, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near local schools, downtown Marlin, and major roadways. A great opportunity for renovation, rental income, or long-term investment. Property is being sold as-is.

18. 2026-02-13
    price $59,900 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Charming single-family home situated on a spacious lot in an established Marlin neighborhood. This property offers approximately 1,404 sq ft of living space with a functional layout and solid potential for owner-occupants or investors. The home sits on a generous lot, providing ample outdoor space for parking, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near local schools, downtown Marlin, and major roadways. A great opportunity for renovation, rental income, or long-term investment. Property is being sold as-is.

19. 2026-02-09
    price $69,900 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Charming single-family home situated on a spacious lot in an established Marlin neighborhood. This property offers approximately 1,404 sq ft of living space with a functional layout and solid potential for owner-occupants or investors. The home sits on a generous lot, providing ample outdoor space for parking, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near local schools, downtown Marlin, and major roadways. A great opportunity for renovation, rental income, or long-term investment. Property is being sold as-is.

20. 2026-02-05
    price $79,900 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Charming single-family home situated on a spacious lot in an established Marlin neighborhood. This property offers approximately 1,404 sq ft of living space with a functional layout and solid potential for owner-occupants or investors. The home sits on a generous lot, providing ample outdoor space for parking, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near local schools, downtown Marlin, and major roadways. A great opportunity for renovation, rental income, or long-term investment. Property is being sold as-is.

21. 2026-01-20
    listed $89,900 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Charming single-family home situated on a spacious lot in an established Marlin neighborhood. This property offers approximately 1,404 sq ft of living space with a functional layout and solid potential for owner-occupants or investors. The home sits on a generous lot, providing ample outdoor space for parking, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near local schools, downtown Marlin, and major roadways. A great opportunity for renovation, rental income, or long-term investment. Property is being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,773 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,773 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,773
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $6,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,613
• After-tax cash flow: $5,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-44.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $53,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $59,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $89,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,773 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.