131 Springville Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,795,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,546 sqft · Land · 372 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 0.41 ac lot $395/sqft · 41% below area Est $3.025M · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction With Heated Pool in Hampton Bays A stunning new construction offering luxurious living in the heart of Hampton Bays. Set on .41 acres, this impressive 5-bedroom, 3-bath residence spans 4,546 square feet and blends sleek design with comfort and functionality. Inside, you'll find hardwood floors throughout, a spacious living room, dining room, den/office, and a beautiful open kitchen equipped with modern appliances. The first and second-floor primary suites offer walk-in closets and en suite baths, while the finished lower level features an additional bedroom and flexible living space-perfect for guests or a home gym. Entertain effortlessly in the beautifully landscaped backyard, where a 40x20 heated gunite pool, stone patio, and open porch create the ultimate outdoor oasis. Additional highlights include a loft, laundry room, central air, a two-car attached garage, municipal water, and private septic. Built in 2026 and move-in ready, this exceptional home is a rare opportunity to own a brand-new residence close to beaches, restaurants, and all the best of the East End.

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Open porch
• Stone patio

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• OPEN KITCHEN
• STONE PATIO
• OPEN PORCH
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $1.79M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-42k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.29M (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.13M (37.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.13M (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,252/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 372 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $1.79M implies a 498% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,125,210 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 372 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.39%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,025,162
• List price: $1,795,000
• Delta: -40.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Canal Way	0.81mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,500 (-1%)	8mo	$5,600,000	$1,244	46
179 Bay Ave E	1.44mi	6/4.5 (+1)	4,611 (+1%)	10mo	$2,750,000	$596	43
76A W Tiana Rd	1.03mi	6/4.5 (+1)	4,800 (+6%)	9mo	$2,400,000	$500	37
11 Bay View Dr	1.32mi	5/4.5	3,982 (-12%)	3mo	$3,700,000	$929	36
6 Wilson Ave	0.39mi	5/5.0	4,000 (-12%)	24mo	$2,850,000	$713	34
11 Trail Rd	0.86mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,820 (+6%)	14mo	$1,600,000	$332	32
28 Lynncliff Rd	0.74mi	5/3.0	3,508 (-23%)	11mo	$1,275,000	$363	31
16 Washington Heights South Ave S	1.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	5,000 (+10%)	20mo	$1,350,000	$270	25
6 Windermere Close	1.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,479 (-24%)	10mo	$1,950,000	$561	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-455,148
• Equity at exit: $267,640

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-413,324
• Equity at exit: $155,199

Cash invested: $502,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,244 /mo · $26,925/yr
• Insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,363
• Net cashflow: $-3,516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,702

Max offer price $1,286,275

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,275	-5% $-2,895	+0% $-3,516	+5% $-4,136	+10% $-4,756
Rent	-10% $-4,405	-5% $-3,960	+0% $-3,516	+5% $-3,071	+10% $-2,627
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,612	-0.5pp $-3,059	base $-3,516	+0.5pp $-3,981	+1.0pp $-4,454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $448,750
• Closing costs: $53,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Alanson Ln Hampton Bays, NY	6.0	3.0	3300	$25,000	$7.58	93d	1	1.26mi
16 Gateway Ct Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	4.0	3242	$25,000	$7.71	71d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 372 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 370 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 369 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 368 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 367 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 364 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 363 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 362 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 361 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 359 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 357 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 356 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 355 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 354 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 353 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 351 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 350 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 349 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 348 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 347 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 346 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 345 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 344 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 343 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 342 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 340 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 339 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 338 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 337 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 336 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 335 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 334 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 333 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 332 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 331 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 330 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 329 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 327 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 325 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 324 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 321 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 320 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 319 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 318 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 316 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 315 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 312 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 311 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 310 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 307 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $135,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,548
• − Property taxes: −$26,925
• − Insurance: −$8,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,802
• − Management: −$10,802
• − Depreciation: −$52,218
• Taxable loss: −$75,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18,059
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The landscaping and curb appeal improvements can further increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can increase both the resale and rental value of the property. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hampton Bays Elementary School F NY #1,361/2,108 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hampton Bays Middle School F NY #522/729 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Hampton Bays High School A- NY #580/1,100 Nat'l #1,359/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1096.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-01 Listed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-30 Sold (MLS) $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-05 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-27 Coming Soon $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,294 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.