131 Springville Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,595,000

6 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,342 sqft · Land · 464 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 0.41 ac lot $477/sqft · 12% above area Est $1.43M · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction With Heated Pool in Hampton Bays A stunning new construction offering luxurious living in the heart of Hampton Bays. Set on .41 acres, this impressive 5-bedroom, 3-bath residence spans 4,546 square feet and blends sleek design with comfort and functionality. Inside, you'll find hardwood floors throughout, a spacious living room, dining room, den/office, and a beautiful open kitchen equipped with modern appliances. The first and second-floor primary suites offer walk-in closets and en suite baths, while the finished lower level features an additional bedroom and flexible living space-perfect for guests or a home gym. Entertain effortlessly in the beautifully landscaped backyard, where a 40x20 heated gunite pool, stone patio, and open porch create the ultimate outdoor oasis. Additional highlights include a loft, laundry room, central air, a two-car attached garage, municipal water, and private septic. Built in 2026 and move-in ready, this exceptional home is a rare opportunity to own a brand-new residence close to beaches, restaurants, and all the best of the East End.

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Open porch
• Stone patio

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• OPEN KITCHEN
• STONE PATIO
• OPEN PORCH
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $1.59M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-559 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.50M (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.11M (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.11M (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 128d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,069/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $1.59M implies a 432% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,106,935 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,430,000
• List price: $1,595,000
• Delta: 11.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1A Jackson Ave Unit A	1.32mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,678 (+10%)	2mo	$985,000	$268	39
28 Lynncliff Rd	0.74mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,508 (+5%)	14mo	$1,275,000	$363	38
34 Rampasture Rd	0.55mi	6/2.5	2,700 (-19%)	12mo	$2,875,000	$1,065	36
153 Ponquogue Ave	0.77mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,919 (-13%)	2mo	$1,430,000	$490	35
19 Greenway Ct	1.31mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,000 (-10%)	18mo	$1,588,700	$530	28
28 W Tiana Rd	1.00mi	5/4.5 (-1)	2,684 (-20%)	4mo	$1,750,000	$652	28
11 Bay View Dr	1.32mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,982 (+19%)	6mo	$3,700,000	$929	26
6 Wilson Ave	0.39mi	5/5.0 (-1)	4,000 (+20%)	28mo	$2,850,000	$713	26
4 Wilson Dr	1.25mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,000 (-10%)	26mo	$988,000	$329	21
8 Gilbert Rd	1.33mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,800 (-16%)	21mo	$3,700,000	$1,321	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-236,432
• Equity at exit: $237,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $10,939
• Equity at exit: $137,906

Cash invested: $446,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,294/yr
• Insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,325
• Net cashflow: $-559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,777

Max offer price $1,496,306

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $-107	+0% $-559	+5% $-2,829	+10% $-3,380
Rent	-10% $-1,433	-5% $-996	+0% $-559	+5% $-121	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $245	-0.5pp $-153	base $-559	+0.5pp $-972	+1.0pp $-1,392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $398,750
• Closing costs: $47,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	5.0	3000	$22,000	$7.33	12d	1	0.97mi
20 Alanson Ln Hampton Bays, NY	6.0	3.0	3300	$25,000	$7.58	184d	1	1.26mi
16 Gateway Ct Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	4.0	3242	$25,000	$7.71	163d	1	1.30mi
4 White Ln Hampton Bays, NY	6.0	3.5	3114	$30,000	$9.63	127d	1	1.35mi
190A Wakeman Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.0	2742	$25,000	$9.12	116d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 464 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 463 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 462 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 461 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 460 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 458 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 457 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 456 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 455 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 454 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 453 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 452 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 451 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 450 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 449 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 448 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 447 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 446 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 445 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 444 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 443 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 442 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 441 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 440 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 439 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 438 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 437 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 436 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 435 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 434 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 433 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 432 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 431 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 430 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 429 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 428 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 427 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 426 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 425 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 424 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 423 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 422 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 421 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    price $1,595,000 Active 420 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 420 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 419 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 418 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 417 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 416 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $1,795,000 Active 415 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,294 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,125 · $1,260/mo
• Expected delta: +$11,831/yr (+$986/mo · 359.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $132,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,345
• − Property taxes: −$3,294
• − Insurance: −$7,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,627
• − Management: −$10,627
• − Depreciation: −$46,400
• Taxable loss: −$35,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,504
• After-tax cash flow: $1,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The landscaping and curb appeal improvements can further increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can increase both the resale and rental value of the property. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hampton Bays Elementary School F NY #1,361/2,108 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hampton Bays Middle School F NY #522/729 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Hampton Bays High School A- NY #580/1,100 Nat'l #1,359/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1096.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-01 Listed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-30 Sold (MLS) $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-05 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-27 Coming Soon $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,294 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.