Loblolly L Plan · Red Bank, SC 29073

$301,790

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,334 sqft · SingleFamily · 306 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the Loblolly, a spacious home designed with five bedrooms and space for real life to happen. This floor plan offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and 2,334 square feet of intentional living space, along with a two-car garage. When you step inside through the foyer, you're welcomed by a main-level bedroom and full bathroom, giving you the flexibility for guests, a home office, play area, or an extra room when you need it. You're then brought into the main living area where the great room, kitchen, and dining space all come together. The kitchen is centered around a large island, making it the perfect spot for cooking or gathering throughout the day, with pantry storage nearby to keep eve

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 306 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing; Address: 906 Citation St, Lexington SC 29073
• Financial info: List price $301,790

Exterior

• Home design: Plan home (Loblolly L)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,334

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Loblolly L)

🏗️ New construction. The $301,790 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,422.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $302k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#121 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,442 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,422
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1034 Colony Creek Ct	0.41mi	5/3.0	2,264 (-3%)	23mo	$300,000	$133	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-55,728
• Equity at exit: $46,285

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-53,624
• Equity at exit: $26,840

Cash invested: $86,918 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29073

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 563
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,628
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,656/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,716

Max offer price $296,579

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $12	+0% $-96	+5% $-203	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-198	+0% $-96	+5% $7	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $-17	base $-96	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,606
• Closing costs: $9,313
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1607 Commendable Ct Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	1783	$2,238	$1.26	24d	1	0.02mi
156 Secretariat St Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	2591	$2,500	$0.96	15d	1	0.12mi
464 Lady Liberty Way Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,150	$1.02	24d	1	0.51mi
919 Dovefield Ln Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	2022	$2,299	$1.14	24d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $301,790 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $301,790 Active 305 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $301,790 Active 304 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $301,790 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $301,790 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $301,790 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $301,790 Active 297 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,388
• − Property taxes: −$4,656
• − Insurance: −$1,552
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − Depreciation: −$9,030
• Taxable loss: −$6,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,554
• After-tax cash flow: $406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — Red Bank

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #11985

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Bank, SC
• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 53,156
• Household income: $77,229
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.20%
• Current HPI: 249.8957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B