11609 Oaklane Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2006 10,454 sqft lot Est $162k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 11609 Oaklane Drive in north Gulfport! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home was built in 2006 and sits on a generous quarter-acre lot — offering plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. At 1,254 square feet, the layout is comfortable and efficient, with a single-car garage adding convenience and extra storage. Fresh paint throughout gives the home a clean, bright feel the moment you walk in, while brand new luxury vinyl flooring adds a modern touch that's as durable as it is beautiful. The kitchen shines with granite countertops, and the entire home has been professionally cleaned from top to bottom — all you need to do is unpack. Located in the highly sought-after

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; 2 total parking spaces; Concrete parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Dead bolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Cement siding; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; City lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Breakfast bar
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Insulated windows; Dead bolt locks
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup (main level, inside); Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harrison Central Elementary (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #92 of 375 statewide, top 26%, 472 students, 99% FRL); West Harrison Middle School (653 students, 100% FRL); West Harrison High School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #10 of 197 statewide, top 5%, 1,124 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 770 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.93%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,140
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11619 Acorn Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+0%)	7mo	$165,000	$136	82
11597 Oaklane Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+4%)	8mo	$145,000	$115	80
11599 Acorn Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+4%)	11mo	$120,000	$95	74
11591 Oaklane Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,256 (+4%)	18mo	$139,000	$111	73
11611 Acorn Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+0%)	18mo	$175,000	$144	73
11580 Acorn Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+6%)	10mo	$139,900	$109	72
12059 Five Oaks Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,251 (+3%)	4mo	$169,900	$136	64
11512 Acorn Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+5%)	23mo	$144,000	$114	60
16383 Clearwater Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+6%)	10mo	$187,900	$146	60
12115 Five Oaks Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,297 (+7%)	1mo	$184,900	$143	58
16364 Clearwater Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+5%)	18mo	$170,000	$134	56
16392 Clearwater Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+11%)	19mo	$179,900	$134	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,281
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $70,899
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,184/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,235

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $483	-5% $439	+0% $395	+5% $351	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $327	+0% $395	+5% $464	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $435	base $395	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12237 Vada Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,349	$1.00	15d	1	0.80mi
15373 Saint Charles St Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0–3.0	1075	$1,350	$1.26	45d	2	1.03mi
11425 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	23d	1	1.22mi
11413 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	45d	1	1.22mi
11487 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	45d	1	1.22mi
11405 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	45d	1	1.22mi
11502 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	23d	1	1.28mi
11213 Dobson Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	1.34mi
18052 Green Leaves Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,800	$1.21	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 687-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $154,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,224 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,184
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $2,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$563
• After-tax cash flow: $4,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $154,900 MLSU
• 2007-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-03-11 Listed $169,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,184 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.