1651 Duran Dr · The Villages, FL 32162

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,121 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1998 3,560 sqft lot Est $256k · 18% under $150/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Furnished 2/2 Colony Patio - 6 panel doors; inside laundry; eat-in area in kitchen plus breakfast bar; walk-in closet in master bedroom and Murphy bed in guest bedroom; tub with shower in guest bathroom. New carpet in living/dining room; painted garage floor plus pull down stairs. This is an investor's dream! BOND PAID!

Key facts

• Conveniently located
• 3,560 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• BLOCKS FROM SAVANNAH CENTER
• POOL TENNIS PICKLEBALL
• CLOSE ACCESS TO UF HOSPITAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Homestead exemption present
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Total annual fees $1,800
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $150); Association amenities: Fitness center, recreation facilities, security, shuffleboard court, storage, tennis courts; Community features: Fitness center, golf, pool, tennis courts, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car garage)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; Model: COLONY; One story; Home faces west
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Paved lot; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Attic; Inside utility; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $723 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,793/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $210k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.75%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,588
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1612 Campos Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,121 (0%)	0mo	$230,000	$205	99
1647 Campos Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,121 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$223	92
2603 Olivarez Way	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,121 (0%)	2mo	$252,000	$225	90
2604 Privada Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (+8%)	0mo	$269,000	$222	78
10235 SE 179th Pl	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+2%)	2mo	$180,599	$158	65
1423 Conchas Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+3%)	1mo	$282,000	$245	65
1480 Azteca Loop	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,185 (+6%)	1mo	$270,000	$228	61
2981 Fair Oak Ter	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,164 (+4%)	0mo	$330,000	$284	61
1487 Azteca Loop	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,192 (+6%)	0mo	$299,900	$252	60
2731 Privada Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	2mo	$250,000	$200	57
1410 Almanza Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,174 (+5%)	2mo	$305,000	$260	56
1418 Azteca	0.70mi	2/1.0	986 (-12%)	2mo	$249,000	$253	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $14,676
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $83,215
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,793 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,737/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,878

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $842	-5% $782	+0% $723	+5% $663	+10% $604
Rent	-10% $502	-5% $612	+0% $723	+5% $833	+10% $943
Rate	-1.0pp $829	-0.5pp $776	base $723	+0.5pp $668	+1.0pp $613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	22d	1	0.62mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	22d	1	0.64mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	22d	1	0.78mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	22d	1	0.88mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	22d	1	0.93mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	22d	1	0.93mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	22d	1	0.95mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	22d	1	0.97mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	22d	1	0.98mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	22d	1	1.26mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	22d	1	1.30mi
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $210,000 Pending 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $210,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-01-13
   price $220,000
9. 2025-12-06
   price $233,000
10. 2025-12-05
    listed $225,000 Active
11. 2012-12-03
    soldstatus $126,900
12. 2012-11-16
    soldstatus $126,900 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Furnished 2/2 Colony Patio - 6 panel doors; inside laundry; eat-in area in kitchen plus breakfast bar; walk-in closet in master bedroom and Murphy bed in guest bedroom; tub with shower in guest bathroom. New carpet in living/dining room; painted garage floor plus pull down stairs. This is an investor's dream! BOND PAID!

13. 2012-08-23
    listed $129,900 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Furnished 2/2 Colony Patio - 6 panel doors; inside laundry; eat-in area in kitchen plus breakfast bar; walk-in closet in master bedroom and Murphy bed in guest bedroom; tub with shower in guest bathroom. New carpet in living/dining room; painted garage floor plus pull down stairs. This is an investor's dream! BOND PAID!

14. 2003-02-03
    soldstatus $117,500
15. 1999-11-03
    soldstatus $83,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,737 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$6/yr ($0/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,737
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,681
• − Management: −$2,681
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $5,692
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $7,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+163.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $233,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $126,900 Public Records
• 2012-11-16 Sold (MLS) $126,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-23 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 1999-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,737 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.