428 S Ash St · Crookston, MN 56716

$79,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1888 5,009 sqft lot $38/sqft · 44% below area Est $140k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is filled with character! Some hardwood floors, 9 ft. ceilings, & more. Home sits on a corner lot and has a detached single garage. Heating system does not work and repairs to home are needed. Lots of potential! Home to be sold, ''As Is''.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 5,009 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DETACHED SINGLE GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 4.2% in Crookston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#92 in MN, #2,097 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Crookston Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #151 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.25%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,117
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -43.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 Houston Avenue Ave	0.11mi	5/1.5 (+1)	2,016 (-3%)	14mo	$209,000	$104	73
124 Washington Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-3%)	2mo	$70,400	$35	72
215 Washington Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,881 (-10%)	0mo	$174,900	$93	61
213 Maple Street St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,941 (-7%)	22mo	$17,000	$9	48
322 S Ash St	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,388 (+15%)	21mo	$214,900	$90	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $16,949
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $53,360
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56716

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,814/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $863

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Large 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is filled with character! Some hardwood floors, 9 ft. ceilings, & more. Home sits on a corner lot and has a detached single garage. Heating system does not work and repairs to home are needed. Lots of potential! Home to be sold, ''As Is''.

2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Large 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is filled with character! Some hardwood floors, 9 ft. ceilings, & more. Home sits on a corner lot and has a detached single garage. Heating system does not work and repairs to home are needed. Lots of potential! Home to be sold, ''As Is''.

3. 2026-02-03
   listed $79,000 Active 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Large 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is filled with character! Some hardwood floors, 9 ft. ceilings, & more. Home sits on a corner lot and has a detached single garage. Heating system does not work and repairs to home are needed. Lots of potential! Home to be sold, ''As Is''.

4. 2026-02-02
   listed $79,000 Active 277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (277 chars)

   Large 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is filled with character! Some hardwood floors, 9 ft. ceilings, & more. Home sits on a corner lot and has a detached single garage. Heating system does not work and repairs to home are needed. Lots of potential! Home to be sold, ''As Is''.

5. 2025-01-01
   historical
6. 2024-01-19
   listed $99,000 Active
7. 2024-01-18
   listed $99,000 Active
8. 2023-10-10
   historical
9. 2023-07-11
   listed $142,900 Active
10. 2023-07-10
    listed $142,900 Active
11. 2020-01-31
    historical
12. 2019-01-13
    listed $119,900
13. 2019-01-13
    listed $119,900
14. 2006-08-23
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,814 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,814 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$2,814
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $4,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,129
• After-tax cash flow: $4,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crookston Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2709720
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,756
• Composite: 40.68/100
• National rank: #3671
• State rank: #151 of 301 in MN

Livability — Crookston

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #2097

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crookston, MN
• Population (ZIP): 8,991

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,123 people
• By 2030: 30,720 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 29,806 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 29,022 · -6.8%
• By 2075: 27,972 · -10.1%
• By 2100: 26,953 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 28% Lithuanian 8% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.3% · R 66.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+28.4 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.06%
• Current HPI: 219.5106
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+12.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — GFAAR
• 2026-05-07 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $79,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $79,000 GFAAR
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-19 Listed $99,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-18 Listed $99,000 GFAAR
• 2023-10-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-11 Listed $142,900 GFAAR
• 2023-07-10 Listed $142,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-31 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-13 Listed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-13 Listed $119,900 GFAAR
• 2006-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,814 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.