152 E 4th St · Oswego, NY 13126

$139,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,345 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1915 4,000 sqft lot Est $151k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

2-bedroom with a potential 3rd bedroom downstairs, 1.5-bath single-family home with functional layout and practical living space. First floor includes a large kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space, suitable for everyday use and meal preparation. Adjacent dining and living areas provide open, usable space for standard furnishings and daily living needs. One bedroom is located on the first floor, offering flexible use for sleeping, office, or additional living space. First-floor laundry provides added convenience. Full bathroom located on the main level. Second floor includes two bedrooms and a half bathroom. Additional closet/storage room located on the second floor provides supplemen

Key facts

• Large back deck
• First floor laundry
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• LARGE BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Charles E Riley Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 379 students, 63% FRL); Oswego Middle School (math 23% / reading 49%, grade F, #469 of 729 statewide, top 65%, 566 students, 53% FRL); Oswego High School (math 87% / reading 79%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,069 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 36% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $140k implies a 600% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.29%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
94 E 5th St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,417 (+5%)	2mo	$148,930	$105	76
279 Cherry St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,358 (+1%)	5mo	$160,000	$118	72
51 E Albany St	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,540 (+14%)	2mo	$179,900	$117	65
203 E 5th St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,143 (-15%)	4mo	$65,000	$57	62
290 E 9th St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,218 (-9%)	2mo	$145,000	$119	61
81 Niagara St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,305 (-3%)	3mo	$120,000	$92	58
9 Varick St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,454 (+8%)	1mo	$89,000	$61	53
104 E Oneida St	0.35mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,149 (-15%)	1mo	$64,000	$56	53
13 E 6th St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,227 (-9%)	5mo	$60,000	$49	53
145 E Seneca St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,213 (-10%)	4mo	$155,000	$128	46
187 Conway Ter	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,495 (+11%)	2mo	$225,000	$151	43
78 Varick St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-12%)	4mo	$132,500	$112	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $23,549
• Equity at exit: $25,560

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $110,895
• Equity at exit: $20,326

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,887 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $578	-5% $539	+0% $499	+5% $459	+10% $420
Rent	-10% $350	-5% $424	+0% $499	+5% $574	+10% $648
Rate	-1.0pp $569	-0.5pp $535	base $499	+0.5pp $463	+1.0pp $426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
64 E 5th St Unit 1 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	45d	1	0.37mi
188 W 2nd St Unit 1 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	22d	1	0.42mi
25 W Mohawk St Unit TH Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,745	$1.52	45d	1	0.43mi
165 W 3rd St Unit 3 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,445	$1.45	45d	1	0.44mi
165 W 3rd St Unit 4 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	15d	1	0.44mi
4 Murray St Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1589	$1,800	$1.13	15d	1	0.50mi
105 W Oneida St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,540	$1.41	15d	1	0.78mi
14 Pond Path Oswego, NY	3.0	1.5	1408	$2,300	$1.63	15d	1	0.80mi
103 W 8th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	15d	1	0.83mi
39 W 6th St Unit 2-A Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,725	$1.15	15d	1	0.83mi
23 NW 9th St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$2,300	$1.35	15d	1	0.84mi
135 W Mohawk St Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1103	$1,700	$1.54	15d	1	0.87mi
130 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,500	$1.47	15d	1	0.89mi
6 Lathrop St Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,725	$1.57	15d	1	0.93mi
136 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	15d	1	0.94mi
141 W Cayuga St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.0	1311	$2,100	$1.60	15d	1	0.97mi
143 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,480	$1.46	15d	1	0.97mi
153 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$2,340	$1.30	15d	1	1.00mi
85 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	15d	1	1.00mi
148 W Seneca St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	15d	1	1.01mi
161 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,240	$1.60	15d	1	1.03mi
153 W Seneca St Unit 1 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,540	$1.54	45d	1	1.05mi
188 W Bridge St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	15d	1	1.12mi
164 W Schuyler St Unit A Oswego, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,755	$1.25	15d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   listed $139,900 Active
3. 2025-03-10
   historical $1,500
4. 2025-02-14
   listed $1,500
5. 2025-02-14
   historical $1,500
6. 2025-01-13
   listed $1,500
7. 2024-12-16
   historical $1,500
8. 2024-11-16
   listed $1,500
9. 2003-11-21
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,400 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,400 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $4,018
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$964
• After-tax cash flow: $5,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oswego, NY
• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+599.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $139,900 CNYIS
• 2025-03-10 Rental Removed $1,500 CNYIS
• 2025-02-14 Listed for Rent $1,500 CNYIS
• 2025-02-14 Rental Removed $1,500 NYSAMLS
• 2025-01-13 Listed for Rent $1,500 NYSAMLS
• 2024-12-16 Rental Removed $1,500 NYSAMLS
• 2024-11-16 Listed for Rent $1,500 NYSAMLS
• 2003-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,400 · +44.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.