407 W 23rd St · Higginsville, MO 64037

$39,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1930 3,093 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an Investment Opportunity? Bring your ideas and finishing touches to this fixer upper! Most of the ground work has been completed including new roof, new exterior wallboard siding, new underground power supply, new electric panel, new wiring, plumbing, sheetrock, doors, windows, and insulation. Sits on a fenced, corner lot in the heart of Higginsville. Selling AS-IS. Offers Welcome!

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Electrical in place
• Sheet rock

Tags

• SHEET ROCK
• ELECTRICAL IN PLACE
• LAUNDRY CLOSET
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• FAIRGROUND PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade living area reported as 854 (public records)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: City/public water (verify); Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; House faces north
• Construction: Board & batten siding; Composition roof; Built 76-100 years ago
• Exterior features: City limits corner lot; City lot; Public road maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (no appliance details provided)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Ranch floor plan; Basement: other
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 24.7% vs local median 4.0% in Higginsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Lafayette County C-1 (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #221 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.80%
• DSCR: 3.93
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,596
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 W 23rd St	0.00mi	2/1.0	854 (0%)	11mo	$39,000	$46	91
409 W 26th St	0.05mi	2/1.0	938 (+10%)	2mo	$128,500	$137	79
625 W Broadway St	0.26mi	2/2.0	898 (+5%)	2mo	$109,900	$122	73
310 W 23rd St	0.06mi	2/1.0	750 (-12%)	10mo	$135,000	$180	69
304 W 23rd St	0.09mi	2/1.0	760 (-11%)	11mo	$75,000	$99	68
601 W 29th St	0.25mi	2/2.0	832 (-3%)	19mo	$153,000	$184	64
605 Fairground Ave	0.26mi	2/2.0	947 (+11%)	9mo	$149,900	$158	58
906 W 24th Ter	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+1%)	14mo	$189,900	$220	53
2703 Maple St	0.24mi	2/2.0	971 (+14%)	19mo	$199,900	$206	46
511 W 19th St	0.54mi	2/1.0	960 (+12%)	13mo	$187,000	$195	44
27 E Broadway St	0.44mi	2/1.0	728 (-15%)	16mo	$104,900	$144	42
2400 Willow St	0.63mi	2/1.0	729 (-15%)	13mo	$127,000	$174	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $32,214
• Equity at exit: $5,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $77,745
• Equity at exit: $3,415

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64037

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax from tax record: −$7 /mo · $82/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $292

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2304 Walnut St Higginsville, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	44d	1	0.28mi
217 W 17th St Higginsville, MO	2.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	44d	1	0.61mi
1914 Willow St Higginsville, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,420	$1.37	44d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,500 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 323-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $39,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $82 · $7/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $383 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 367.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$82
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $7,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,689
• After-tax cash flow: $5,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette County C-1
• NCES district ID: 2914400
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,595
• Composite: 29.54/100
• National rank: #6493
• State rank: #221 of 324 in MO

Livability — Higginsville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #7795

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Higginsville, MO
• City population: 6,325
• Population (ZIP): 6,325

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 265.7736
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+98.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $39,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-01 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-01 Price Changed $39,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-30 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-26 Listed $49,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-03 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-21 Listed $55,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-17 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-17 Listed $55,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-02 Price Changed $68,000 CMBR
• 2023-09-02 Price Changed $68,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-07 Listed $72,000 CMBR
• 2023-07-27 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-27 Listed $72,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-07 Price Changed $75,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-04 Listed $85,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-01 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-10 Listed $19,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $82 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.