770 Lincoln Ave #26 · Napa, CA 94558

$79,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1962 Est $96k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One bedroom, one bath home tucked away in a quiet senior community on Lincoln Ave. This home boasts a large yard for entertaining or just to enjoy a quiet evening in the Napa Valley.

Key facts

• Two storage sheds
• Peaceful setting
• Community atmosphere

Tags

• QUICK ACCESS TO WALMART
• NEARBY SOSCOL GATEWAY AREA
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease applies; land lease amount $750
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; on-street parking available (total 2 spaces)
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (single wide); Faces east; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Skirting: aluminum, metal, and wood
• Exterior features: Covered deck with railing; Patio awning; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Laminate countertops; Pantry cabinet; Free standing electric range; Free standing gas range
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Shower stall; Low-flow toilet(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Free standing electric range and free standing gas range; Gas water heater; Breakfast area; Laminate countertops; Pantry cabinet; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 2.0% in Napa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $80k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,307 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.04%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,250
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
770 Lincoln Ave #48	0.00mi	1/1.0	600 (+9%)	8mo	$105,000	$175	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $54,406
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $117,264
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $780

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
847 Central Ave Unit A Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	660	$2,300	$3.48	43d	1	0.11mi
727 Central Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1210	$2,420	$2.00	13d	7	0.13mi
700 Stonehouse Dr Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,453	$2.35	13d	8	0.40mi
601 River Glen Dr Napa, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,018	$2.88	23d	3	0.43mi
550 River Glen Dr Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	790	$1,898	$2.40	13d	12	0.44mi
2942 Soscol Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$2,376	$2.64	13d	18	0.59mi
3200 Soscol Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$2,389	$2.73	13d	13	0.69mi
713 Trancas St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	833	$1,949	$2.34	13d	6	0.74mi
3285 Beard Rd Unit 3271 Napa, CA	1.0	1.0	616	$1,950	$3.17	13d	1	0.77mi
463 Coffield Ave Apt 8 Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,099	$3.00	23d	1	1.09mi
2123 2nd St Napa, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$2,045	$4.09	43d	1	1.20mi
2614 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,245	$2.59	13d	2	1.27mi
2638 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$2,275	$2.52	13d	6	1.29mi
511 Riverside Dr Unit RIV515 Napa, CA	1.0	1.0	732	$1,875	$2.56	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $79,500 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2017-07-06
    soldstatus $48,000 Sold 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    One bedroom, one bath home tucked away in a quiet senior community on Lincoln Ave. This home boasts a large yard for entertaining or just to enjoy a quiet evening in the Napa Valley.

19. 2017-07-02
    status Pending 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    One bedroom, one bath home tucked away in a quiet senior community on Lincoln Ave. This home boasts a large yard for entertaining or just to enjoy a quiet evening in the Napa Valley.

20. 2017-06-19
    historical Contingent 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    One bedroom, one bath home tucked away in a quiet senior community on Lincoln Ave. This home boasts a large yard for entertaining or just to enjoy a quiet evening in the Napa Valley.

21. 2017-06-09
    price $55,900 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    One bedroom, one bath home tucked away in a quiet senior community on Lincoln Ave. This home boasts a large yard for entertaining or just to enjoy a quiet evening in the Napa Valley.

22. 2017-05-23
    listed $57,500 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    One bedroom, one bath home tucked away in a quiet senior community on Lincoln Ave. This home boasts a large yard for entertaining or just to enjoy a quiet evening in the Napa Valley.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $13,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,237
• After-tax cash flow: $10,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Napa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napa, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 91,371
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+47.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $85,000 BAREIS
• 2017-07-06 Sold (MLS) $48,000 BAREIS
• 2017-07-02 Pending — BAREIS
• 2017-06-19 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2017-06-09 Price Changed $55,900 BAREIS
• 2017-05-23 Listed $57,500 BAREIS