Ravinia Quail Run Plan · New Haven, MI 48048

$63,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 185 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in suburban Detroit, Quail Run offers serene living in a highly-desirable location in affordable, high-quality homes. We are in our 40th year of making dreams of homeownership a reality.

Key facts

• Listed 184 days

🏗️ New construction. The $63,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $45,993.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 4.1% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#650 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Haven Community Schools (suburban): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #305 of 540 in MI (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $318 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $56,232 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.95%
• DSCR: 4.07
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,993
• List price: $63,900
• Delta: 38.93%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33006 Primrose Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+0%)	13mo	$86,000	$69	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $39,696
• Equity at exit: $6,858

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.40×
• Total profit: $95,334
• Equity at exit: $3,977

Cash invested: $12,878 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48048

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $690/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $402

Max offer price $45,993

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $772	-5% $756	+0% $740	+5% $724	+10% $708
Rent	-10% $634	-5% $687	+0% $740	+5% $793	+10% $846
Rate	-1.0pp $763	-0.5pp $752	base $740	+0.5pp $728	+1.0pp $716

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,498
• Closing costs: $1,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32631 Cary Ln N New Haven, MI	4.0	2.0	1056	$1,339	$1.27	0d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $63,900 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,900 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,900 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,900 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,900 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $63,900 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,900 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $63,900 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $63,900 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $63,900 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $63,900 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $63,900 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $63,900 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,900 Active 164 DOM
15. 2025-12-19
    listed $63,900 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Located in suburban Detroit, Quail Run offers serene living in a highly-desirable location in affordable, high-quality homes. We are in our 40th year of making dreams of homeownership a reality.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,576
• − Property taxes: −$690
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$1,338
• Taxable income: $8,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,079
• After-tax cash flow: $6,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home in Ravinia Quail Run shows average condition with moderate repairs needed to the roof and minor exterior siding issues. A fresh coat of paint and new roof shingles would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate roof shingles — Worn shingles need replacement
• Minor exterior siding — Some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace roof shingles — New roof improves structural integrity and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof shingles · Worn shingles need replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace roof shingles — New roof improves structural integrity and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,247
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6575
• State rank: #305 of 540 in MI

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #22110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,065
• Population (ZIP): 11,065

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Italian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.74%
• Current HPI: 242.3675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Listed $63,900 Zillow