16838 W Desert Blossom Way · Surprise, AZ 85387

$383,500

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,862 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2003 7,350 sqft lot $206/sqft · 14% below area Est $447k · 14% under $160/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your own little slice of desert paradise--Desirable Sycamore plan tucked near pickleball, golf, the Cimarron Center, and relaxing day spa amenities. This charming 1,862 sq ft home blends comfort and Arizona lifestyle with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an enclosed den perfect for hobbies or quiet retreats. Sip your morning coffee on the extended back patio beside the tranquil water feature or take in an Arizona sunset on the cozy courtyard . Thoughtful updates include replaced HVAC and hot water heater, granite countertops, maple cabinetry, bay windows, gas fireplace, solar tubes, and an extended garage with built-in cabinets. The backyard oasis features pavers, built-in BBQ, fruit trees.Ideally priced for buyers looking to update & personalize to fit their lifestyle needs.

Key facts

• 7,350 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1316 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,589 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.41%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $447,199
• List price: $383,500
• Delta: -14.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16824 W Palisade Trail Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,824 (-2%)	1mo	$486,000	$266	89
19843 N Rawhide Way	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,902 (+2%)	0mo	$375,000	$197	77
16698 W Pacheco Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,854 (-0%)	2mo	$365,000	$197	76
19620 N Majestic Vista Ct	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,872 (+0%)	1mo	$425,000	$227	70
19425 N Guardian Ln	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,834 (-2%)	1mo	$375,000	$204	68
20168 N Shadow Mountain Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,870 (+0%)	2mo	$519,000	$278	66
16639 W Bajada Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,894 (+2%)	2mo	$395,000	$209	63
16461 W Juniper Ct	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,958 (+5%)	0mo	$400,000	$204	59
19532 N Copper Canyon Ct	0.52mi	2/2.0	2,075 (+11%)	0mo	$425,000	$205	52
19228 N Guardian Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0	2,075 (+11%)	0mo	$450,000	$217	50
16446 W Century Plant Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	2,019 (+8%)	1mo	$479,000	$237	47
19877 N Crimson Ridge Way	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,627 (-13%)	0mo	$420,000	$258	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-87,282
• Equity at exit: $57,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-123,507
• Equity at exit: $33,158

Cash invested: $107,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85387

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 1316
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,011
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,290/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,192

Max offer price $329,609

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,875
• Closing costs: $11,505
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20046 N Hearthstone Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,800	$1.96	43d	1	0.59mi
16248 W Tuscany Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1909	$2,500	$1.31	43d	1	0.62mi
19352 N Vista Montana Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	12d	1	0.63mi
19326 N Tallowood Way Unit 1546399P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1894	$2,185	$1.15	14d	1	0.68mi
16171 W Wildflower Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,200	$2.50	18d	1	0.70mi
16149 W Quail Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	43d	1	0.72mi
17181 W Gable End Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	2312	$3,450	$1.49	43d	1	0.86mi
16426 W Boulder Vista Dr Unit 1546454P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$4,436	$2.73	14d	1	0.90mi
21531 N Black Bear Lodge Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,595	$0.86	17d	1	0.91mi
15913 W Clearwater Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1546	$3,000	$1.94	43d	1	1.07mi
21640 N Casa Royale Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,195	$1.16	16d	1	1.09mi
18277 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1870	$3,500	$1.87	43d	1	1.25mi
20054 N Painted Sky Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1598	$3,200	$2.00	24d	1	1.27mi
15619 W Vista Grande Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1370	$3,500	$2.55	43d	1	1.38mi
15628 W Hidden Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,600	$2.21	43d	1	1.40mi
16270 W Cactus Valley Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,875	$1.40	43d	1	1.44mi
18121 N Key Estrella Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1909	$3,500	$1.83	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $383,500 Pending 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $383,500 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $383,500 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $383,500 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $383,500 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $383,500 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $383,500 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $383,500 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $383,500 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    price $383,500 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Your own little slice of desert paradise--Desirable Sycamore plan tucked near pickleball, golf, the Cimarron Center, and relaxing day spa amenities. This charming 1,862 sq ft home blends comfort and Arizona lifestyle with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an enclosed den perfect for hobbies or quiet retreats. Sip your morning coffee on the extended back patio beside the tranquil water feature or take in an Arizona sunset on the cozy courtyard . Thoughtful updates include replaced HVAC and hot water heater, granite countertops, maple cabinetry, bay windows, gas fireplace, solar tubes, and an extended garage with built-in cabinets. The backyard oasis features pavers, built-in BBQ, fruit trees.Ideally priced for buyers looking to update & personalize to fit their lifestyle needs.

11. 2026-03-26
    listed $398,500 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Your own little slice of desert paradise--Desirable Sycamore plan tucked near pickleball, golf, the Cimarron Center, and relaxing day spa amenities. This charming 1,862 sq ft home blends comfort and Arizona lifestyle with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an enclosed den perfect for hobbies or quiet retreats. Sip your morning coffee on the extended back patio beside the tranquil water feature or take in an Arizona sunset on the cozy courtyard . Thoughtful updates include replaced HVAC and hot water heater, granite countertops, maple cabinetry, bay windows, gas fireplace, solar tubes, and an extended garage with built-in cabinets. The backyard oasis features pavers, built-in BBQ, fruit trees.Ideally priced for buyers looking to update & personalize to fit their lifestyle needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,290 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,531 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$241/yr (+$20/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,482
• − Property taxes: −$2,290
• − Insurance: −$1,918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,694
• − Management: −$2,694
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$11,156
• Taxable loss: −$10,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,516
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $98,757
• Rent vs Own: 5.0% rent · 95.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 123.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.16%
• Current HPI: 263.1123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $383,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $398,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,290 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.