3 Pine St Unit B · Pine Lake Park, NJ 08757

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Good condition Est $102k · 26% over $486/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3B Pine St, a well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath unit located in the desirable Cedar Glen 55+ adult community. This inviting home features a comfortable layout with a bright living area, hardwood flooring, and generously sized bedrooms. A standout feature is the enclosed sunroom--perfect for morning coffee or relaxing year-round. Enjoy low-maintenance living in a quiet, well-kept community, all while being conveniently located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and the Jersey Shore. Situated in Manchester Township with a Toms River mailing address, this is a great opportunity to own in one of Ocean County's most sought after adult communities.

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Located near dining
• Listed 18 days

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• LOCATED NEAR DINING
• LOCATED NEAR JERSEY SHORE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.7% in Pine Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,323/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.20%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Birch Dr Unit B	0.11mi	2/1.0	920 (0%)	5mo	$70,000	$76	91
27 B Cedar St	0.13mi	2/1.0	900 (-2%)	4mo	$135,000	$150	87
5 Cypress St Unit C	0.21mi	2/1.0	900 (-2%)	2mo	$70,000	$78	85
3 A Birch St	0.11mi	2/1.0	900 (-2%)	9mo	$77,000	$86	83
9 Birch St Unit D	0.08mi	2/1.0	900 (-2%)	13mo	$90,000	$100	82
22 A Holly St Unit A	0.14mi	2/1.0	920 (0%)	14mo	$80,500	$88	82
6A Willow St	0.16mi	2/1.0	920 (0%)	18mo	$85,000	$92	78
5a Cedar St	0.23mi	2/1.0	900 (-2%)	12mo	$100,000	$111	75
2 Cypress St Unit C	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	900 (-2%)	11mo	$118,000	$131	70
1601 Beacon St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	7mo	$435,000	$453	63
1641 Madison Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	821 (-11%)	6mo	$360,000	$438	47
2025 7th Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,016 (+10%)	15mo	$385,000	$379	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,575
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $46,351
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$486
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $547	-5% $502	+0% $458	+5% $413	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $366	+0% $458	+5% $549	+10% $641
Rate	-1.0pp $523	-0.5pp $490	base $458	+0.5pp $424	+1.0pp $390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $486 · $5,832/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $129,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   status $129,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-01
   listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − HOA: −$5,832
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $4,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$966
• After-tax cash flow: $4,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in a desirable community offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both update landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both install new front door — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both update landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both install new front door — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Lake Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #12719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $129,000 MOMLS