819 Arrow St · Henderson, NC 27536

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1975 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR ALERT! Looking to add to your rental portfolio, don't miss this. 2 BRs, 1 BA, large eat in kitchen, and living room. Convenient to hospital, restaurants, shopping, etc. Tenant has been there since 2018 and is currently rented for $835 a month.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 12 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $69,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$165,360) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.3% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#583 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vance County Middle School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #459 of 475 statewide, top 97%, 797 students, 100% FRL); Vance County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #499 of 535 statewide, top 94%, 958 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.30%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
819 Arrow St	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$67	94
1125 Beacon Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,064 (+2%)	3mo	$79,000	$74	79
818 Wakefield Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,099 (+6%)	6mo	$208,000	$189	71
860 Nelson St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (-2%)	1mo	$165,000	$161	70
1220 Roanoke Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+4%)	3mo	$214,000	$198	68
906 Abbott St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,090 (+5%)	3mo	$165,500	$152	66
924 Buckhorn St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,066 (+2%)	8mo	$170,000	$159	64
1204 Roanoke Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,159 (+11%)	3mo	$174,000	$150	61
431 Waddill St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,127 (+8%)	10mo	$157,500	$140	53
320 Zollicoffer Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	942 (-9%)	12mo	$145,000	$154	53
1542 Oakdale Cir	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,171 (+13%)	6mo	$230,000	$196	50
1421 Deer Crossing Ct	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-8%)	13mo	$178,500	$186	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $13,937
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $44,724
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27536

• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,122/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $619

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $416	+0% $396	+5% $377	+10% $357
Rent	-10% $308	-5% $352	+0% $396	+5% $441	+10% $485
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $414	base $396	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1216 2nd St Henderson, NC	2.0	1.0	796	$995	$1.25	25d	1	0.23mi
1637 Berry Ave Henderson, NC	3.0	2.5	1396	$1,850	$1.33	13d	1	0.25mi
543 Horner St Henderson, NC	2.0	1.0	700	$695	$0.99	22d	1	0.46mi
210 Corbitt Rd Unit 224 Henderson, NC	2.0	1.5	1148	$1,175	$1.02	25d	1	0.51mi
200 Ridge Rd Henderson, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$1,265	$1.21	3d	1	1.20mi
1027 Maple St Unit 1029 Henderson, NC	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	23d	1	1.20mi
913 Lehman St Henderson, NC	3.0	1.0	966	$795	$0.82	25d	1	1.22mi
105 Holly Ct Henderson, NC	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	22d	1	1.28mi
433 Norvell St Henderson, NC	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,075	$0.88	25d	1	1.34mi
434 Owen St Henderson, NC	3.0	1.5	1154	$795	$0.69	18d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,122 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,122 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,122
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $3,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$931
• After-tax cash flow: $3,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vance County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704650
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,323
• Composite: 19.29/100
• National rank: #8801
• State rank: #166 of 178 in NC

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #21468

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henderson, NC
• County: Vance County · 15,298 people
• City population: 15,298
• Metro: Henderson, NC
• Population (ZIP): 15,298
• Household income: $39,985
• Rent vs Own: 62.3% rent · 37.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1110.0

Population outlook (Vance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,985 people
• By 2030: 40,286 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 36,372 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 32,466 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 24,229 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 17,784 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vance

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 56.3% · R 42.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.2 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+28.3 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.23%
• Current HPI: 198.8762
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Henderson, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $69,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,122 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.