1002 Autumn Gate Dr · Navassa, NC 28451

$264,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,594 sqft · Townhouse public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2024 2,614 sqft lot Est $281k · 6% under $160/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Grand Nassau truly lives up to its grand name! Enter this attached home through the one-car garage and step right into the gorgeous gourmet kitchen. Its large center island overlooks both the inviting great room and the formal dining space. Entertain family and friends here or outside on the optional outdoor covered patio. The main level also includes your luxury owner's suite, which features a dual vanity bath and huge walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find two spacious bedrooms, a full bath, and unfinished storage. Enjoy low maintenance living at Lakes at Riverbend, as all lawn maintenance is included! Future amenities include 5000+ sq. ft. clubhouse with fitness center, large swimming

Key facts

• $160 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-392/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Navassa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#141 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 44% / reading 37%, grade F, #682 of 1,410 statewide, top 49%, 675 students, 100% FRL); Leland Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 780 students, 100% FRL); North Brunswick High (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,450 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1224 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,423 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,544
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3324 Primrose Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+2%)	1mo	$259,000	$159	93
3171 Edgehill Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,633 (+2%)	1mo	$280,000	$171	90
3340 Primrose Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+2%)	3mo	$284,865	$175	90
3342 Primrose Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+2%)	3mo	$300,340	$184	90
3320 Primrose Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+2%)	6mo	$307,675	$188	90
3322 Primrose Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+2%)	6mo	$286,130	$176	89
4182 Farmfield Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+2%)	4mo	$276,895	$170	89
4194 Farmfield Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+2%)	3mo	$269,990	$166	89
1007 Autumn Gate Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+2%)	10mo	$278,722	$171	86
1011 Autumn Gate Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+2%)	11mo	$296,525	$181	86
3109 Edgehill Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,634 (+2%)	11mo	$294,245	$180	84
3170 Edgehill Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,442 (-10%)	2mo	$275,000	$191	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-48,920
• Equity at exit: $39,511

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-60,722
• Equity at exit: $22,911

Cash invested: $74,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28451

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1224
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,841/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,296

Max offer price $259,221

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $42	+0% $-33	+5% $-108	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-211	-5% $-122	+0% $-33	+5% $56	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $35	base $-33	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,248
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3160 Edgehill Dr Navassa, NC	3.0	2.5	1432	$2,319	$1.62	15d	1	0.13mi
867 Ashlar Cir Leland, NC	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,300	$1.36	25d	1	0.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2024-03-04
   soldstatus $320,000
3. 2024-01-19
   status Pending
4. 2024-01-08
   listed $264,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,841 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$332/yr (+$28/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,841
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,164
• − Management: −$2,164
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,180
• After-tax cash flow: $788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Navassa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #8091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Navassa, NC
• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 46,933
• Household income: $81,481
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1049.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.99%
• Current HPI: 148.6217
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+20.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2024-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-19 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2024-01-08 Listed $264,990 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+1025.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,841 · +1025.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.