30405 Vineyard Rd · Willowick, OH 44095

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1959 7,405 sqft lot Est $192k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3405 Vineyard Rd — a solid, move-in-ready home with the big-ticket items already handled, giving you the opportunity to add your own finishes and build equity. This 3-bedroom, 2 full bath ranch offers true single-level living with a functional layout. The main living and dining areas feature new luxury vinyl flooring, creating a clean, modern feel, while the bedrooms offer hardwood flooring ready to be refinished or customized to your style. A newer furnace and A/C provide added peace of mind. The finished basement expands the living space significantly, offering flexibility for a rec room, home office, gym, or additional entertaining area — a major value-add not alwa

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.4% in Willowick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#50 in OH, #706 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Willoughby-Eastlake City (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #434 of 656 in OH (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 448 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $111k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.07%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30405 Vineyard Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	1mo	$162,500	$169	96
30424 Fern Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+6%)	0mo	$201,000	$198	77
30404 Gebhart Pl	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,062 (+11%)	5mo	$209,900	$198	74
30153 Truman Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	988 (+3%)	1mo	$234,000	$237	72
30232 Forestgrove Rd	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,062 (+11%)	5mo	$220,000	$207	62
30812 Ronald Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,094 (+14%)	4mo	$240,000	$219	59
29070 W Willowick Dr	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (+6%)	2mo	$220,000	$217	54
845 Charles St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+15%)	3mo	$253,400	$230	50
29050 Edgewood Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+9%)	0mo	$210,000	$200	49
518 E 305th St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,102 (+15%)	2mo	$215,000	$195	49
29010 Barjode Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+11%)	3mo	$164,000	$154	48
30545 Willow Ln	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+12%)	1mo	$179,900	$167	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-15,993
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,437
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44095

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,422/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,543

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
679 Dickerson Rd Willowick, OH	4.0	2.0	806	$1,649	$2.05	1d	1	0.59mi
29103 Barjode Rd Willowick, OH	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,950	$1.75	19d	1	0.59mi
29210 Green Dr Willowick, OH	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,700	$1.70	1d	1	0.65mi
30446 Euclid Ave Wickliffe, OH	2.0	1.5	1044	$1,350	$1.29	43d	1	0.69mi
30050 Euclid Ave Unit A2 Wickliffe, OH	2.0	1.0	1036	$1,350	$1.30	43d	1	0.89mi
29007 Foxboro St Willowick, OH	4.0	2.0	976	$1,550	$1.59	17d	1	1.07mi
33201 Vine St Willowick, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	621	$1,200	$1.93	20d	1	1.29mi
360 E 326th St Willowick, OH	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,447	$1.37	2d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $165,000
3. 2026-04-06
   listed $169,900 Active
4. 2018-07-12
   soldstatus $111,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,422 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,422 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,422
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$294
• After-tax cash flow: $1,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willoughby-Eastlake City
• NCES district ID: 3904510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,500
• Composite: 42.96/100
• National rank: #3110
• State rank: #434 of 656 in OH

Livability — Willowick

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #706

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willowick, OH
• County: Lake County · 204,927 people
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 32,363
• Household income: $71,543
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,022 people
• By 2030: 228,151 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 221,018 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 212,754 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 200,309 · -12.9%
• By 2100: 183,315 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.7 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.78%
• Current HPI: 171.8121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+48.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $165,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-06 Listed $169,900 MLSNOW
• 2018-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,422 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.