4757 Old Lake Rd · Jackson, MS 39212

$137,794

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1975 0.29 ac lot $102/sqft · 11% below area Est $156k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced reduced! You'll love this , three bedroom two bath, lots of closet and new carpet/paint. NICE!!!!

Key facts

• 2 car carport
• Formal dining room
• Private backyard

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• 2 CAR CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as fixer; Lot approximately 0.29 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built date from public records
• Exterior features: Slab patio/porch; Chain link fencing; See remarks listed by agent

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating details: see remarks; Cooling details: see remarks
• Interior features: See remarks listed by agent
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sykes Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #319 of 375 statewide, top 88%, 325 students, 100% FRL); Whitten Middle School (math 4% / reading 11%, grade F, #168 of 179 statewide, top 94%, 338 students, 100% FRL); Forest Hill High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #168 of 197 statewide, top 86%, 991 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $952 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,660 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.87%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,529
• List price: $137,794
• Delta: -11.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4775 Old Lake Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+1%)	7mo	$95,000	$69	90
149 Mayfair Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-4%)	15mo	$159,900	$123	74
410 Heritage Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+6%)	3mo	$200,000	$139	73
548 Vineland Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+6%)	0mo	$179,900	$125	71
209 Holly Hill Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+9%)	8mo	$130,000	$88	71
430 Trent Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	9mo	$140,000	$97	71
169 Fox Meadows Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+9%)	11mo	$145,000	$98	68
624 Cedar Springs Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-2%)	3mo	$148,900	$112	66
4849 Terry Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-7%)	16mo	$210,000	$167	62
344 Red Oak Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+5%)	2mo	$189,000	$132	59
5083 Terry Rd	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,467 (+8%)	2mo	$189,900	$129	50
637 Cedar Springs Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+8%)	14mo	$205,000	$141	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-99
• Equity at exit: $20,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $34,428
• Equity at exit: $11,914

Cash invested: $38,582 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$723
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,963/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $137,794

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,448
• Closing costs: $4,134
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 Gary Daniels Dr Byram, MS	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,595	$1.05	43d	1	0.83mi
301 Elton Park Dr Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$1,399	$1.29	13d	9	0.99mi
257 Gaddy Dr Byram, MS	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,794 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,794 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,794 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,794 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,794 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,794 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $137,794 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,794 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $137,794 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,794 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $137,794 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,794 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,794 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,794 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,794 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $137,794 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-02
    listed $137,794 Active 650-char remark
18. 2021-10-08
    historical
19. 2014-01-16
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Priced reduced! You'll love this , three bedroom two bath, lots of closet and new carpet/paint. NICE!!!!

20. 2011-10-18
    listed $55,000

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Priced reduced! You'll love this , three bedroom two bath, lots of closet and new carpet/paint. NICE!!!!

21. 2011-03-21
    listed $84,900
22. 1977-05-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,963 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,963 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,719
• − Property taxes: −$1,963
• − Insurance: −$689
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$4,009
• Taxable income: $1,710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$410
• After-tax cash flow: $3,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+62.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $137,794 MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2014-01-16 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2011-10-18 Listed $55,000 MLSU
• 2011-03-21 Listed $84,900 MLSU
• 1977-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,963 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.