707 Emery St · Fulton, NY 13069

$82,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,574 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1920 0.32 ac lot Est $101k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large home , with lots of potential. Property being sold "AS IS" Good opportunity for owner occupant or invester

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• New metal roof
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW METAL ROOF
• HOT WATER TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 6.9% in Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#907 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Fulton City School District (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #554 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $82k implies a 486% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.54%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
524 Rochester St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (-7%)	1mo	$80,000	$55	75
17 N 5th St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+5%)	7mo	$192,000	$116	69
117 S 7th St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,347 (-14%)	2mo	$50,000	$37	66
871 Oneida St	0.34mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,512 (-4%)	5mo	$172,000	$114	66
890 Cayuga St	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,716 (+9%)	4mo	$110,000	$64	66
609 Seneca St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,381 (-12%)	2mo	$118,450	$86	64
614 Utica St	0.08mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,374 (-13%)	3mo	$25,000	$18	64
1021 Cayuga St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,743 (+11%)	3mo	$95,000	$55	62
409 Seneca St	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,726 (+10%)	2mo	$111,300	$64	58
229 S 12th St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,532 (-3%)	3mo	$25,000	$16	58
407 State St	0.43mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	2mo	$125,000	$91	51
700 Fay St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,448 (-8%)	4mo	$195,000	$135	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $62,234
• Equity at exit: $55,467

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.76×
• Total profit: $155,219
• Equity at exit: $104,157

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13069

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,675/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $592	-5% $569	+0% $546	+5% $523	+10% $500
Rent	-10% $423	-5% $484	+0% $546	+5% $608	+10% $669
Rate	-1.0pp $587	-0.5pp $567	base $546	+0.5pp $525	+1.0pp $503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 S 5th St Fulton, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$1,850	$1.03	14d	1	0.37mi
312 Utica St Fulton, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	14d	1	0.37mi
115 W 1st St S Unit 2 Fulton, NY	2.0	1.0	1958	$1,400	$0.72	14d	1	0.80mi
262 W 4th St S Unit 1 Fulton, NY	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-21
   price $82,000
4. 2025-12-09
   listed $85,000 Active
5. 2011-10-21
   listed $49,500
6. 2010-08-16
   soldstatus $14,000 122-char remark

   Show marketing remark (122 chars)

   Large home , with lots of potential. Property being sold "AS IS" Good opportunity for owner occupant or invester

7. 2010-06-21
   listed $19,900 122-char remark

   Show marketing remark (122 chars)

   Large home , with lots of potential. Property being sold "AS IS" Good opportunity for owner occupant or invester

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,675 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,675 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$2,675
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $5,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,361
• After-tax cash flow: $5,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton City School District
• NCES district ID: 3611700
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,337
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6220
• State rank: #554 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fulton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #17723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 23,176

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Current HPI: 304.443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+312.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-05 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $82,000 CNYIS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $85,000 CNYIS
• 2011-10-21 Listed $49,500 CNYIS
• 2010-08-16 Sold (MLS) $14,000 CNYIS
• 2010-06-21 Listed $19,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,675 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.