18109 El Conejo Rd · Salida del Sol Estates, TX 78576

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1957 0.50 ac lot $64/sqft · 45% below area Est $154k · 45% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located just minutes from both the local elementary and middle schools, this property offers convenience and incredible potential. Whether you're looking to build new or deconstruct and reimagine the space, the area is rapidly growing with development opportunities all around. A smart investment in a thriving community!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 154 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.58%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,531
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -44.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17621 Royal Palm Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-3%)	15mo	$228,900	$179	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $51,073
• Equity at exit: $55,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $130,511
• Equity at exit: $101,931

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78576

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,695/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $788

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $412	+0% $388	+5% $364	+10% $340
Rent	-10% $287	-5% $338	+0% $388	+5% $439	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $431	-0.5pp $410	base $388	+0.5pp $366	+1.0pp $344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-01-15
    listed $85,000 Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Located just minutes from both the local elementary and middle schools, this property offers convenience and incredible potential. Whether you're looking to build new or deconstruct and reimagine the space, the area is rapidly growing with development opportunities all around. A smart investment in a thriving community!

18. 2025-09-30
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,695
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,544
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$850
• After-tax cash flow: $3,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Salida del Sol Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salida del Sol Estates, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,902

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 71%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 97%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 4% English-only · Spanish 96%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Current HPI: 238.1571
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $85,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $85,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,695 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.