Gehrig Plan · Springfield, FL 32404

$279,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. An inviting open-concept floorplan encourages simple transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, just steps from a full bathroom, and a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Single-story living
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,240.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-415 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 18% / reading 18%, grade F, #2,115 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 76% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $217,054 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,240
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -9.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3961 Alwyn Cashe Ave #49	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (+1%)	0mo	$306,490	$176	91
3908 Alwyn Cashe Ave #65	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (+1%)	2mo	$259,990	$149	86
3665 Cedar Park Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,751 (+1%)	1mo	$369,000	$211	80
3930 Lombard St	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+9%)	3mo	$299,990	$159	76
3912 Alwyn Cashe Ave #66	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,891 (+9%)	2mo	$279,990	$148	72
3812 Wall Street St Unit HS 97	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+9%)	2mo	$288,290	$152	70
3828 Wall Street St Unit HS 93	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (-9%)	2mo	$266,990	$170	68
3695 Cedar Park Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (+4%)	2mo	$379,900	$211	68
3844 Wall St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (-9%)	2mo	$279,900	$178	68
3950 Red Deer Cir	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,650 (-5%)	0mo	$329,900	$200	60
3946 Red Deer Cir	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,650 (-5%)	1mo	$329,900	$200	60
3103 Justine Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,962 (+13%)	1mo	$449,900	$229	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-80,406
• Equity at exit: $45,960

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-119,881
• Equity at exit: $26,651

Cash invested: $86,307 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,616
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,624/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,696

Max offer price $248,124

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-202	-5% $-309	+0% $-415	+5% $-522	+10% $-628
Rent	-10% $-587	-5% $-501	+0% $-415	+5% $-330	+10% $-244
Rate	-1.0pp $-260	-0.5pp $-337	base $-415	+0.5pp $-495	+1.0pp $-577

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,060
• Closing costs: $9,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3884 Red Deer Cir Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1972	$2,200	$1.12	23d	1	0.61mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	23d	1	0.78mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	15d	1	0.93mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	23d	1	0.94mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	23d	1	0.97mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	1.26mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	15d	1	1.30mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	23d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,990 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,990 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,990 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,990 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,990 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $279,990 Active 104 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $304,990 Active 103 DOM
19. 2026-02-19
    price $304,990 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. An inviting open-concept floorplan encourages simple transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, just steps from a full bathroom, and a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

20. 2026-02-18
    price $294,990 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. An inviting open-concept floorplan encourages simple transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, just steps from a full bathroom, and a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

21. 2026-02-16
    listed $289,990 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. An inviting open-concept floorplan encourages simple transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, just steps from a full bathroom, and a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,266
• − Property taxes: −$4,624
• − Insurance: −$1,541
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − Depreciation: −$8,967
• Taxable loss: −$10,519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $289,990 Zillow