240 Hillside Ave · West Seneca, NY 14127

$194,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1938 8,100 sqft lot Est $274k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 240 Hillside Avenue in Orchard Park This well-kept colonial has one Bedroom / Office on the first floor with three-bedroom upstairs. Eat in kitchen- nice size family room and living room on the first floor. First floor laundry. Full basement. Updates include furnace, hot water tank, roof. Extra-large 2.5 car garage. Plenty of yard space to enjoy. This great property is close to the New Stadium and all local amenities. Showings begin immediately!!!!

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Full basement
• Updates include roof

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• UPDATES INCLUDE FURNACE
• UPDATES INCLUDE HOT WATER TANK
• UPDATES INCLUDE ROOF
• EXTRA-LARGE GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot (60 x 135); City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $194,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.38%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
359 Lakeview Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-4%)	10mo	$220,000	$179	79
124 Hillside Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,314 (+3%)	14mo	$242,000	$184	78
60 Burmon Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,280 (0%)	13mo	$252,000	$197	77
5244 Lake Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	8mo	$310,000	$248	74
64 Burmon Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-6%)	10mo	$241,200	$201	65
781 Willet Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,148 (-10%)	1mo	$280,627	$244	58
160 Bielak Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,170 (-9%)	10mo	$250,000	$214	56
197 Bielak Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+14%)	0mo	$270,000	$186	53
131 Grant Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,466 (+14%)	1mo	$321,000	$219	44
15 Grant Ct	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,466 (+14%)	2mo	$329,900	$225	41
156 South Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,414 (+10%)	9mo	$280,000	$198	37
18 Grant Blvd	0.67mi	3/3.5	1,466 (+14%)	10mo	$325,000	$222	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,811
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $307
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14127

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,020/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,821

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $254	+0% $199	+5% $144	+10% $89
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $117	+0% $199	+5% $281	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $297	-0.5pp $249	base $199	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
158 South Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1380	$2,500	$1.81	3d	1	0.69mi
3400 McKinley Pkwy Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	908	$1,330	$1.46	3d	1	1.29mi
3835 Teachers Ln Orchard Park, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	980	$1,410	$1.44	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $194,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,020 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,020 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$4,020
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$165
• After-tax cash flow: $2,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Seneca

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2089

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,101
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 31,543
• Household income: $109,386
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 428.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.52%
• Current HPI: 298.7896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $194,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,020 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.