6202 Conley St · Houston, TX 77021

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 217 Days on market

Built 1937 5,000 sqft lot $81/sqft · 46% below area Est $230k · 46% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1-story corner home W/4-bed, 2-bath home, & 2-bed, 1-bath quest quarters in Belmont ready for you. Being sold with MLS# 24409647, 26696173, 49038010, 59916271, 49999437, 7468649, 74766011, 75960757, 8783915

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1937

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Peck El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 388 students, 98% FRL); Cullen Middle (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 324 students, 100% FRL); Yates H S (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 851 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,158/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 2532% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.37%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,650
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -45.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3630 Alsace St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-2%)	6mo	$289,999	$190	69
6625 Goforth St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,489 (-4%)	4mo	$142,000	$95	66
3838 Daphne St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,461 (-6%)	2mo	$269,000	$184	64
6614 Sherwood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+10%)	5mo	$149,900	$88	62
6401 Goforth St	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,767 (+14%)	4mo	$339,000	$192	60
6906 England St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+3%)	4mo	$309,900	$194	58
3618 Zephyr St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+9%)	3mo	$299,900	$178	58
6908 England St	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+3%)	5mo	$309,900	$194	56
3607 Zephyr St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,683 (+9%)	4mo	$299,900	$178	56
3806 Cosby St	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,740 (+12%)	5mo	$265,000	$152	49
6419 Madrid St	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+9%)	3mo	$329,900	$195	48
6832 Goforth St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,392 (-10%)	5mo	$98,000	$70	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $25,189
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $75,802
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77021

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,081/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $811	-5% $775	+0% $740	+5% $705	+10% $669
Rent	-10% $570	-5% $655	+0% $740	+5% $825	+10% $911
Rate	-1.0pp $803	-0.5pp $772	base $740	+0.5pp $708	+1.0pp $675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5813 England St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1473	$2,195	$1.49	6d	1	0.33mi
3731 Alsace St Unit 1560804P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2002	$3,387	$1.69	5d	1	0.44mi
6809 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1921	$2,600	$1.35	45d	1	0.57mi
6731 New York St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2211	$2,100	$0.95	45d	1	0.62mi
6109 Wayland St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	1d	1	0.66mi
3644 Griggs Rd Unit 1047940P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1399	$2,161	$1.54	4d	1	0.66mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	20d	1	0.69mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	1d	1	0.69mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	45d	1	0.69mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 3617 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,435	$1.09	45d	1	0.73mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,445	$1.09	0d	1	0.73mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 3597 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,434	$1.08	13d	1	0.73mi
3560 Dixie Dr Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,410	$1.07	9d	1	0.73mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,410	$1.07	7d	1	0.73mi
7032 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,850	$2.34	45d	1	0.77mi
4705 Idaho St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,500	$1.50	19d	1	0.78mi
6926 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	1d	1	0.79mi
6928 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	1d	1	0.79mi
6336 Culberson St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1822	$2,361	$1.30	7d	1	0.83mi
6334 Culberson St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1822	$2,311	$1.27	4d	1	0.83mi
4907 Culmore Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,700	$1.50	19d	1	0.91mi
6735 Peerless St Unit CUNIT A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1732	$2,649	$1.53	19d	1	0.99mi
6737 Peerless St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1732	$2,649	$1.53	19d	1	0.99mi
6735c Peerless St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1732	$2,599	$1.50	1d	1	1.00mi
5123 Dewberry St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$2,400	$1.73	45d	1	1.00mi
3311 Daphne St Unit 1255369P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1797	$6,391	$3.56	1d	1	1.04mi
3311 Daphne St Unit 3311 Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1800	$7,500	$4.17	45d	1	1.04mi
5116 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,316	$1.16	45d	1	1.06mi
3615 Dreyfus St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2011	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	1.08mi
4907 Marietta Ln Unit 1494902P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$3,278	$2.06	16d	1	1.08mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	23d	1	1.09mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	23d	1	1.09mi
5154 Griggs Rd Unit CAVE Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,420	$1.07	5d	1	1.10mi
3846 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1833	$2,300	$1.25	45d	1	1.14mi
3655 Seabrook St Unit 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,000	$0.62	45d	1	1.18mi
3732 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,350	$1.36	26d	1	1.19mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	45d	1	1.22mi
4465 N MacGregor Way Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	1366	$940	$0.69	26d	1	1.31mi
3360 Alice St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,172	$1.02	14d	1	1.33mi
3360 Alice St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,172	$1.02	0d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-03-24
    price $125,000 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    1-story corner home W/4-bed, 2-bath home, & 2-bed, 1-bath quest quarters in Belmont ready for you. Being sold with MLS# 24409647, 26696173, 49038010, 59916271, 49999437, 7468649, 74766011, 75960757, 8783915

13. 2025-11-15
    listed $145,000 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    1-story corner home W/4-bed, 2-bath home, & 2-bed, 1-bath quest quarters in Belmont ready for you. Being sold with MLS# 24409647, 26696173, 49038010, 59916271, 49999437, 7468649, 74766011, 75960757, 8783915

14. 2010-12-16
    soldstatus
15. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,081 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,081 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,081
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $7,403
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,777
• After-tax cash flow: $7,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,153
• Household income: $45,574
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2532.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% White 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.22%
• Current HPI: 230.2869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2010-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,081 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.