35281 Valley Ridge Rd · Dade City, FL 33525

$309,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Land · 101 Days on market

Built 2026 7,595 sqft lot $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Pickleball courts
• Scenic rolling hills

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN
• SCENIC ROLLING HILLS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• HALF BASKETBALL COURT
• OUTDOOR GATHERING AREAS
• DOG PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: under 1/4 acre (approx. 0.17 acre); Permit number: 20251279; Builder license number: CBC039052
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply; Home warranty included
• HOA & community: HOA (GMS) with required association approval; Monthly HOA fee $39; Association amenities: pool, clubhouse, basketball court

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces southeast; New construction; Completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built by D.R. Horton (model: Cali); Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Park and community pool nearby; Community basketball court and clubhouse; Pets allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Blinds; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco Elementary School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 89% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 48% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 667 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $249,433 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-60,615
• Equity at exit: $46,221

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-65,919
• Equity at exit: $26,802

Cash invested: $86,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,494 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,093/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,702

Max offer price $280,959

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-77	+0% $-164	+5% $-252	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-263	+0% $-164	+5% $-66	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-85	base $-164	+0.5pp $-245	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,498
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35288 Spruce Knob Ct Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2305	$2,300	$1.00	18d	1	0.04mi
35514 Mahwah Ave Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2020	$2,400	$1.19	21d	1	0.23mi
12813 Ware Ln Dade City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1103	$1,795	$1.63	0d	14	0.56mi
36132 Trinity Glade Rd Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,425	$1.60	15d	1	0.86mi
36169 Trinity Glade Rd Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2181	$2,600	$1.19	12d	1	0.88mi
12945 Ogden Glade Rd Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,195	$1.21	18d	1	0.91mi
36350 Spanish Rose Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,149	$1.18	5d	1	1.11mi
12374 Eastpointe Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	2047	$2,650	$1.29	18d	1	1.16mi
13576 Whiskey Daisy Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2238	$2,500	$1.12	0d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $309,990 Pending 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,990 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $309,990 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $309,990 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $309,990 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-05-21
   price $329,990
7. 2026-05-20
   price $329,990 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

8. 2026-05-19
   price $340,209 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

9. 2026-05-14
   status Active 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

10. 2026-05-14
    price $334,844 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

11. 2026-05-13
    status Active
12. 2026-05-13
    price $335,990
13. 2026-05-02
    historical 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

14. 2026-04-30
    status Pending
15. 2026-04-16
    price $329,990 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

16. 2026-04-15
    price $329,990
17. 2026-03-24
    price $333,990 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

18. 2026-03-23
    price $333,990
19. 2026-03-17
    price $331,990

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

20. 2026-03-17
    price $331,990 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

21. 2026-03-11
    price $329,990

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

22. 2026-03-11
    price $329,990 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

23. 2026-02-21
    listed $331,355 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 35281 VALLEY RIDGE ROAD DADE CITY FL 33525 priced at 329990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

24. 2026-02-17
    price $331,355
25. 2026-02-11
    price $330,355
26. 2026-02-10
    listed $3,303,355 Active
27. 2025-10-01
    soldstatus $1,814,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,093 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,093 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$4,093
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
• − Management: −$2,395
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$7,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,764
• After-tax cash flow: $-208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-81.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $329,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $340,209 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $334,844 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $335,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $329,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $333,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $333,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $331,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $331,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $329,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Listed $331,355 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $331,355 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $330,355 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $3,303,355 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,814,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+549.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,093 · +549.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.