195 SE Mill St · Myrtle Creek, OR 97457

$127,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,659 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1950 4,791 sqft lot $77/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the charming town of Myrtle Creek, this fixer-upper is a rare opportunity for buyers ready to bring their vision to life. The home has been completely gutted, offering a blank canvas for your creativity and design ideas. With the major demolition already completed, the property is ready for its next owner to reimagine the space from the ground up. Whether you’re dreaming of a cozy country retreat or an investment property, the possibilities here are wide open.The structure sits in a peaceful small-town setting with the natural beauty of Southern Oregon all around. You can design the finishes and features exactly how you want them, creating a home that truly reflects your personal style. Investors, builders and ambitious homeowners will appreciate the chance to skip the tear-out stage and move straight into planning and rebuilding.Conveniently located near local amenities, schools and outdoor recreation, this property combines location with potential. Bring your tools, your plans and your imagination—this is the perfect project for someone ready to transform a gutted house into a beautiful custom home. Opportunities like this don’t come around often in this welcoming community.

Key facts

• Completely gutted
• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• COMPLETELY GUTTED
• MAJOR DEMOLITION COMPLETED
• PEACEFUL SMALL-TOWN SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.2% in Myrtle Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#107 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Umpqua SD 19 (town): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #51 of 58 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $127k implies a 274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,570 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.92%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,279
• List price: $127,000
• Delta: -54.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 SE Woody Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-9%)	3mo	$385,000	$254	71
416 NW Heard St	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,672 (+1%)	7mo	$263,000	$157	65
351 SE Woody Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,766 (+6%)	16mo	$380,000	$215	62
827 NE Jackson Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-3%)	17mo	$341,000	$211	56
515 NE Spruce Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-7%)	19mo	$355,000	$229	51
133 SE Wildwood Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-14%)	9mo	$310,000	$217	49
243 SE Debbie Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-11%)	13mo	$349,000	$236	49
434 NE Neal Ln	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,736 (+5%)	0mo	$204,900	$118	48
233 SE Wildwood Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-13%)	20mo	$329,900	$230	41
875 NE Orchard Dr	0.52mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,492 (-10%)	17mo	$349,000	$234	36
949 NE Jenny Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-12%)	22mo	$357,000	$246	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,592
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $21,664
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97457

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,141/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 NE Broadway St Myrtle Creek, OR	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,095	$1.58	43d	1	0.38mi
999 NE Broadway St Myrtle Creek, OR	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,750	$1.15	43d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $127,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $127,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $127,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $127,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $127,000 Active 1224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1224 chars)

    Located in the charming town of Myrtle Creek, this fixer-upper is a rare opportunity for buyers ready to bring their vision to life. The home has been completely gutted, offering a blank canvas for your creativity and design ideas. With the major demolition already completed, the property is ready for its next owner to reimagine the space from the ground up. Whether you’re dreaming of a cozy country retreat or an investment property, the possibilities here are wide open.The structure sits in a peaceful small-town setting with the natural beauty of Southern Oregon all around. You can design the finishes and features exactly how you want them, creating a home that truly reflects your personal style. Investors, builders and ambitious homeowners will appreciate the chance to skip the tear-out stage and move straight into planning and rebuilding.Conveniently located near local amenities, schools and outdoor recreation, this property combines location with potential. Bring your tools, your plans and your imagination—this is the perfect project for someone ready to transform a gutted house into a beautiful custom home. Opportunities like this don’t come around often in this welcoming community.

17. 2006-01-03
    soldstatus $34,000 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    OVERSIZED FIXER UPPER, WITH 3 BEDROOMS 2 BATHS, BRING YOUR HAMMER, NEEDS NEW FOUNDATION. PRICED TO SELL. INVESTORS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL HERE. GREAT BUY.Owner terms available..

18. 2005-12-05
    historical 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    OVERSIZED FIXER UPPER, WITH 3 BEDROOMS 2 BATHS, BRING YOUR HAMMER, NEEDS NEW FOUNDATION. PRICED TO SELL. INVESTORS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL HERE. GREAT BUY.Owner terms available..

19. 2005-09-02
    listed $49,900 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    OVERSIZED FIXER UPPER, WITH 3 BEDROOMS 2 BATHS, BRING YOUR HAMMER, NEEDS NEW FOUNDATION. PRICED TO SELL. INVESTORS LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL HERE. GREAT BUY.Owner terms available..

20. 2003-11-12
    soldstatus $15,000
21. 2003-10-29
    historical
22. 2003-08-20
    listed $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,232 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$91/yr (+$8/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$1,141
• − Insurance: −$6,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,887
• − Management: −$1,887
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable income: $1,700
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$408
• After-tax cash flow: $2,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Umpqua SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111610
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,796
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7976
• State rank: #51 of 58 in OR

Livability — Myrtle Creek

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #5976

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Myrtle Creek, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,158

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.88%
• Current HPI: 348.9631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+464.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $127,000 RMLS
• 2006-01-03 Sold (MLS) $34,000 RMLS
• 2005-12-05 Delisted — RMLS
• 2005-09-02 Listed $49,900 RMLS
• 2003-11-12 Sold (MLS) $15,000 RMLS
• 2003-10-29 Delisted — RMLS
• 2003-08-20 Listed $22,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,141 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.