690 Route 311 · Lake Carmel, NY 12563

$449,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1989 1.35 ac lot Est $617k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perched above the street on a beautiful lot overlooking Putnam County, this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath Cape Cod offers a rare blend of character, comfort, and natural beauty. Rustic wood siding, classic dormer windows, and shutters give the home timeless curb appeal, while surrounding mature trees provide privacy and scenic views in every direction. Inside, the home features a warm and functional layout with flexible living space ideal for guests or a home office. A wood-burning stove adds warmth and character to the main living area during colder months. Conveniently located just about 15 minutes from the Metro-North station in Brewster, the property offers an easy commute while still prov

Key facts

• Country living
• Wood siding
• Metro north station

Tags

• WOOD SIDING
• DORMER WINDOWS
• MATURE TREES
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• METRO NORTH STATION
• COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic sewer system; Electric service by NYSEG; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; 7 total rooms; Basement present (crawl space); Attic with pull-down stairs; Wood burning stove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Utilities: Electricity connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $449k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.3% in Lake Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $449,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.67%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $616,616
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Caroline Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,960 (-9%)	11mo	$560,000	$286	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $105,555
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $322,579
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12563

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$985 /mo · $11,815/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,680
• Net cashflow: $2,794

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,464

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Cushman Rd Patterson, NY	3.0	2.0	2286	$8,000	$3.50	12d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $449,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,815 · $985/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,815 · $985/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $96,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$11,815
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,680
• − Management: −$7,680
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable income: $28,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,808
• After-tax cash flow: $26,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Carmel

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #12139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,456

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.07%
• Current HPI: 247.1582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,815 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.