4861 224 Hwy · Wellington, MO 64097

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1965 0.82 ac lot $115/sqft · 22% below area Est $204k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super one story ranch style home with a full basement. Home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, gas heat, deck, and chain link fence. A bid can get canceled or rejected at any time so check www. HUDHomeStore.com DAILY for status. To obtain a First American Home Warranty on this property you may add $415 to the closing costs on your HUD contract. This will affect the net price. See MLS supplements for application and instructions.

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area approximately 1,392 (per public records); Directions: From Wellington intersection of 131 Hwy & 224 Hwy, go west on 224 Hwy to home on right.
• Financial info: Annual tax listed (refer to listing for current amount)
• HOA & community: No association fees; No community maintenance provided

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One-story (ranch)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Built approximately 51–75 years ago
• Exterior features: Not in a flood plain; Lot is about 0.82 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Electric cooling (has cooling)
• Interior features: Ranch floor plan; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($392/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#641 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Wellington-Napoleon R-IX (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #162 of 324 in MO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $127,511 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,119
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -21.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $53,581
• Equity at exit: $106,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $154,620
• Equity at exit: $197,890

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64097

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $828/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,234

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $78	+0% $33	+5% $-13	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $-18	+0% $33	+5% $83	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $73	base $33	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 166-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $160,000 Active 166-char remark
3. 2013-01-09
   soldstatus 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Super one story ranch style home with a full basement. Home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, gas heat, deck, and chain link fence. A bid can get canceled or rejected at any time so check www. HUDHomeStore.com DAILY for status. To obtain a First American Home Warranty on this property you may add $415 to the closing costs on your HUD contract. This will affect the net price. See MLS supplements for application and instructions.

4. 2012-10-24
   listed $21,603 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Super one story ranch style home with a full basement. Home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, gas heat, deck, and chain link fence. A bid can get canceled or rejected at any time so check www. HUDHomeStore.com DAILY for status. To obtain a First American Home Warranty on this property you may add $415 to the closing costs on your HUD contract. This will affect the net price. See MLS supplements for application and instructions.

5. 2012-10-23
   historical
6. 2012-07-16
   listed $29,900
7. 2003-12-23
   soldstatus
8. 2003-11-13
   listed $68,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,552 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$724/yr (+$60/mo · 87.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$828
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$574
• After-tax cash flow: $966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellington-Napoleon R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931560
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,108
• Composite: 33.2/100
• National rank: #5534
• State rank: #162 of 324 in MO

Livability — Wellington

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #21732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,117

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.56%
• Current HPI: 258.7382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+132.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $160,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-09 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-24 Listed $21,603 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-23 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-16 Listed $29,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-23 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-13 Listed $68,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $828 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.