8301 Twin Lakes Dr · Mobile, AL 36695

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1980 1.00 ac lot $134/sqft · at area comps Est $261k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 8301 Twin Lakes Dr! Step into timeless style with this beautifully designed 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mid-century modern home. Showcasing soaring vaulted ceilings and clean architectural lines, this residence offers an airy, open feel filled with natural light. The stunning fireplace serves as a warm and inviting focal point, perfect for cozy evenings. Enjoy year-round relaxation in the bright sunroom, ideal for morning coffee or quiet afternoon reading. Entertain with ease on the spacious back deck, offering plenty of room for gatherings and outdoor living. Blending classic design with comfortable functionality, this home is a true standout for those who appreciate mid-century charm with modern livability. Call me or your favorite realtor to see this one today!

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• Stunning fireplace
• Bright sunroom

Tags

• MID-CENTURY MODERN HOME
• SOARING VAULTED CEILINGS
• STUNNING FIREPLACE
• BRIGHT SUNROOM
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($360/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Orourke Elementary School (math 27% / reading 59%, grade F, #204 of 627 statewide, top 33%, 862 students, 54% FRL); Bernice J Causey Middle School (math 17% / reading 51%, grade F, #98 of 257 statewide, top 38%, 1,418 students, 53% FRL); Baker High School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #107 of 305 statewide, top 36%, 2,491 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 67% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 557 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,644 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,908
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -4.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8451 Placid Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-2%)	1mo	$220,000	$121	84
8406 Champlain Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-7%)	1mo	$247,900	$143	79
8166 Junior Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,828 (-2%)	10mo	$270,000	$148	76
8240 Winchester Woods Ct	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,928 (+3%)	11mo	$300,000	$156	74
2261 Vulcan Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,868 (0%)	2mo	$260,000	$139	69
2575 Rosebud Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,723 (-8%)	2mo	$263,000	$153	67
2744 Rosebud Dr E	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,763 (-6%)	8mo	$269,900	$153	64
2271 Carrington Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,824 (-2%)	3mo	$320,000	$175	64
2520 Rosebud Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,659 (-11%)	0mo	$239,000	$144	62
8122 Danielle Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+12%)	10mo	$285,000	$136	52
2618 D'iberville Dr N	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-12%)	10mo	$180,000	$109	49
2154 O'rourke Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,080 (+11%)	8mo	$292,000	$140	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,272
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-58,100
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36695

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $643/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,858

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $101	+0% $30	+5% $-41	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-45	+0% $30	+5% $105	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $94	base $30	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2719 Rosebud Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,950	$1.14	15d	1	0.47mi
8361 Jeptha Ct Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	45d	1	0.79mi
2346 Bobwhite Trl W Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1781	$1,650	$0.93	22d	1	0.98mi
2212 Summer Xing Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	1.07mi
2175 Schillinger Rd S Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$1,790	$1.51	15d	11	1.13mi
2147 Seasons Ct Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,625	$1.02	45d	1	1.14mi
1718 Calgary Dr W Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Welcome to 8301 Twin Lakes Dr! Step into timeless style with this beautifully designed 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mid-century modern home. Showcasing soaring vaulted ceilings and clean architectural lines, this residence offers an airy, open feel filled with natural light. The stunning fireplace serves as a warm and inviting focal point, perfect for cozy evenings. Enjoy year-round relaxation in the bright sunroom, ideal for morning coffee or quiet afternoon reading. Entertain with ease on the spacious back deck, offering plenty of room for gatherings and outdoor living. Blending classic design with comfortable functionality, this home is a true standout for those who appreciate mid-century charm with modern livability. Call me or your favorite realtor to see this one today!

2. 2026-03-30
   listed $249,900 Active 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Welcome to 8301 Twin Lakes Dr! Step into timeless style with this beautifully designed 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mid-century modern home. Showcasing soaring vaulted ceilings and clean architectural lines, this residence offers an airy, open feel filled with natural light. The stunning fireplace serves as a warm and inviting focal point, perfect for cozy evenings. Enjoy year-round relaxation in the bright sunroom, ideal for morning coffee or quiet afternoon reading. Entertain with ease on the spacious back deck, offering plenty of room for gatherings and outdoor living. Blending classic design with comfortable functionality, this home is a true standout for those who appreciate mid-century charm with modern livability. Call me or your favorite realtor to see this one today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $643 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$382/yr (+$32/mo · 59.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$643
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$971
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 52,690
• Household income: $76,040
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1619.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 23% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.28%
• Current HPI: 193.1651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-30 Listed $249,900 GCMLS AL