316 Bells Camp Rd · Birmingham, AL 35006

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 484 Days on market

Built 1950 0.75 ac lot $67/sqft · 27% below area Est $177k · 27% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3-bedroom 2.5 bath home on leased land in the Bells Camp area. The view is spectacular! Public boat launch and pier just outside your door. You can dock your boat or take a nice swim. New carpet, stainless steel appliances, stone wood burning fireplace, separate dining room, bonus room. Buyer must past background and credit check.

Key facts

• Public boat launch
• 0.75 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• PUBLIC BOAT LAUNCH
• STONE WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $129,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$176,922) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($209/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 484 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,993 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 484 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,922
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -26.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Julian Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,752 (-9%)	8mo	$155,000	$88	61
470 Chichester Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0	2,184 (+13%)	2mo	$295,000	$135	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $71,828
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $210,597
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35006

• Home prices YoY: 31.5%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,110/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $54	+0% $17	+5% $-19	+10% $-56
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $-25	+0% $17	+5% $60	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $50	base $17	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 484 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 483 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 482 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 481 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 479 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 476 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 475 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 474 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 473 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 469 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 468 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 467 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 466 DOM
14. 2026-03-04
    price $129,900 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom 2.5 bath home on leased land in the Bells Camp area. The view is spectacular! Public boat launch and pier just outside your door. You can dock your boat or take a nice swim. New carpet, stainless steel appliances, stone wood burning fireplace, separate dining room, bonus room. Buyer must past background and credit check.

15. 2025-08-07
    price $149,900 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom 2.5 bath home on leased land in the Bells Camp area. The view is spectacular! Public boat launch and pier just outside your door. You can dock your boat or take a nice swim. New carpet, stainless steel appliances, stone wood burning fireplace, separate dining room, bonus room. Buyer must past background and credit check.

16. 2025-02-19
    listed $160,000 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom 2.5 bath home on leased land in the Bells Camp area. The view is spectacular! Public boat launch and pier just outside your door. You can dock your boat or take a nice swim. New carpet, stainless steel appliances, stone wood burning fireplace, separate dining room, bonus room. Buyer must past background and credit check.

17. 2021-12-13
    soldstatus $149,900
18. 2021-12-08
    soldstatus $149,900 Sold 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Beautiful TOTALLY Remodeled 3 bedroom 2.5 bath Warrior River/Oak Grove School!! Leased Land (Minor Leasing) large level back yard. Stainless steel appliances, new carpet, bathroom fixtures, flooring. You name it is been redone!! Three plate glass windows for the BEST view on the river. Separate boating area. Community boat launch right outside your door.

19. 2021-10-14
    historical Contingent 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Beautiful TOTALLY Remodeled 3 bedroom 2.5 bath Warrior River/Oak Grove School!! Leased Land (Minor Leasing) large level back yard. Stainless steel appliances, new carpet, bathroom fixtures, flooring. You name it is been redone!! Three plate glass windows for the BEST view on the river. Separate boating area. Community boat launch right outside your door.

20. 2021-10-08
    listed $149,900 Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Beautiful TOTALLY Remodeled 3 bedroom 2.5 bath Warrior River/Oak Grove School!! Leased Land (Minor Leasing) large level back yard. Stainless steel appliances, new carpet, bathroom fixtures, flooring. You name it is been redone!! Three plate glass windows for the BEST view on the river. Separate boating area. Community boat launch right outside your door.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,110 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,110 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,110
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,027
• − Management: −$1,027
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$487
• After-tax cash flow: $696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 210,422
• Population (ZIP): 3,599

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 10% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.65%
• Current HPI: 215.74
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $129,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $149,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed $160,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2021-12-08 Sold (MLS) $149,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-10-14 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-10-08 Listed $149,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,110 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.