12186 Pebble Point Dr Dr E · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$5,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Total charm and quality in this home in the heart of desireable Dunns Creek Plantation. Property features upgrades galore including new stainless steel appliances, updated bathrooms, fresh paint throughout, new fixtures and updated flooring. Master suite located on first floor with 4 additional bedrooms and loft upstairs. Very conveniently located to schools, shopping and downtown Jacksonville.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2005
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage
• Home design: Residential property; Two stories
• Exterior features: Lot within a planned unit development (PUD)

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Interior features: Two-story interior layout

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$409,680) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 450.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louis S. Sheffield Elementary School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 725 students, 41% FRL); Oceanway School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 927 students, 51% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 47.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 450.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1587.26%
• DSCR: 71.62
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $409,680
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12261 Bristol Creek Dr	0.23mi	5/3.5	3,414 (0%)	1mo	$410,000	$120	86
1316 Dunns Lake Dr	0.12mi	5/3.5	3,444 (+1%)	19mo	$439,000	$127	75
1424 Dunns Lake Dr	0.23mi	5/3.0	3,414 (0%)	19mo	$380,000	$111	74
1315 Dunns Lake Dr	0.15mi	5/2.5	3,414 (0%)	23mo	$408,000	$120	72
12337 Cardinal Creek Dr	0.31mi	5/3.5	3,621 (+6%)	2mo	$330,000	$91	72
1586 Porter Lakes Dr	0.53mi	5/3.5	3,414 (0%)	12mo	$410,000	$120	63
1279 Dunns Lake Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,234 (-5%)	24mo	$464,500	$144	58
12633 Daylight Trl	0.50mi	5/3.0	3,353 (-2%)	19mo	$395,000	$118	58
12307 Cardinal Creek Dr	0.24mi	5/3.0	3,849 (+13%)	14mo	$469,000	$122	55
1363 Samantha Cir N	0.47mi	5/3.0	3,011 (-12%)	23mo	$425,000	$141	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 79.69×
• Total profit: $110,171
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 158.79×
• Total profit: $220,908
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 735
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $1,852

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,855	-5% $1,854	+0% $1,852	+5% $1,850	+10% $1,848
Rent	-10% $1,663	-5% $1,757	+0% $1,852	+5% $1,946	+10% $2,040
Rate	-1.0pp $1,854	-0.5pp $1,853	base $1,852	+0.5pp $1,851	+1.0pp $1,849

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12290 Lawson Creek Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	2938	$2,685	$0.91	5d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $5,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 315-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,292
• − Management: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $23,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,650
• After-tax cash flow: $16,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2019-12-31 Sold (MLS) $285,000 realMLS
• 2019-11-21 Pending — realMLS
• 2019-11-07 Contingent — realMLS
• 2019-10-24 Listed $285,000 realMLS
• 2013-12-19 Sold (MLS) $189,000 realMLS
• 2013-08-16 Listed $199,499 realMLS
• 2012-07-18 Listed $173,000 realMLS
• 2005-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $216,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,897 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.