147 Aspen St · Clarence, NY 14001

$34,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition Est $53k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 147 Aspen in Quarry Hills Estates 55+. A place where its residents are excited to live within this well-kept community! This manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 FULL BATHROOMS, 2 car tandem garage and a carport! Step inside to this open floor plan with spacious rooms and lots of natural light. Primary bedroom has its own private bathroom which has a very nice no step entry shower that was recently updated at a cost of about $7k. Kitchen is spacious with lots of cabinets, double sink, comes with all appliances and has a small breakfast bar. 1st floor laundry with washer and dryer included in the sale. Furnace and central air both recently updated about 1 year ago at a cost o

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• No step entry shower
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NO STEP ENTRY SHOWER
• LEAF GUARD GUTTERS
• LARGE SHED
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• RV BOAT STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is on a land lease ($690 monthly)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home (Schult); One-story; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Schult manufactured home
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Shed(s) / storage; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Free-standing range; Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Low-threshold shower and no stairs (accessible features); Partially furnished; Breakfast bar; Den; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Main level primary with primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($926 rent vs $35k).
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 1.3% in Clarence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#707 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $34,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.22%
• DSCR: 3.68
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $52,668
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Quarry Hill Ests	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+8%)	1mo	$72,000	$72	80
181 Quarry Hl	0.09mi	2/1.0	980 (+6%)	11mo	$38,900	$40	72
110 Quarry Hl	0.13mi	2/1.5	980 (+6%)	14mo	$12,500	$13	70
182 Quarry Hill Ests	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	10mo	$77,000	$73	58
—	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	22mo	$60,000	$57	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $25,592
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $62,560
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14001

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $524/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $305

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $34,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $34,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$524
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$889
• − Management: −$889
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $5,666
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,360
• After-tax cash flow: $4,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home in Quarry Hill Estates 55+ is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is located in a well-maintained community. Fresh paint and landscaping can significantly boost its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn but still functional.
• Minor Bathroom shower — Recently updated but still functional.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn but still functional.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom shower · Recently updated but still functional.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clarence

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #13415

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,122

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.68%
• Current HPI: 322.1897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $34,900 WNYREIS