10127 N 95th Dr Unit A · Peoria, AZ 85345

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · Condo public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1973 $185/sqft · 20% below area Est $238k · 20% under $84/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice and quiet. Adult community low maintenance. close to everything you need.

Key facts

• $84 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sun Valley Elementary School (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #623 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 806 students, 65% FRL); Raymond S. Kellis (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #114 of 381 statewide, top 30%, 1,817 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 35% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 331 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $190k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,840 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,309
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -20.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-22,633
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-20,196
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85345

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $536/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$84
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $301	-5% $247	+0% $193	+5% $140	+10% $86
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $124	+0% $193	+5% $263	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $289	-0.5pp $242	base $193	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10316 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,000	$1.48	26d	1	0.09mi
9426 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ	3.0	3.5	1405	$1,800	$1.28	18d	1	0.09mi
10104 N 96th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,750	$1.63	26d	1	0.17mi
10110 N 97th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,500	$1.46	26d	1	0.28mi
9323 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,985	$1.52	25d	1	0.29mi
9323 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,085	$1.60	45d	1	0.29mi
9626 W Mountain View Rd Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.30mi
10701 N 99th Ave Unit 230 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	784	$1,099	$1.40	22d	1	0.54mi
10101 N 91st Ave #109 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.5	1161	$1,395	$1.20	4d	1	0.60mi
9002 W Malapai Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,040	$1.61	21d	1	0.64mi
9680 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,540	$1.81	0d	10	0.66mi
8930 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,899	$1.46	45d	2	0.69mi
8930 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,099	$1.61	25d	1	0.69mi
10822 N Balboa Dr Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	942	$3,000	$3.18	26d	1	0.77mi
9625 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1485	$2,224	$1.50	0d	9	0.85mi
8834 W Purdue Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,800	$1.36	4d	1	0.85mi
11411 N 91st Ave Unit 213 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	858	$1,399	$1.63	26d	1	0.90mi
10221 N 87th Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,059	$1.67	45d	1	0.93mi
11411 N 91st Ave Unit 134 Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	45d	1	0.94mi
8940 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	897	$1,400	$1.56	18d	1	0.94mi
8940 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,600	$1.11	45d	1	0.94mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,695	$1.58	0d	1	0.95mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	26d	1	0.95mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	4d	1	0.95mi
10350 W Camden Ave Sun City, AZ	2.0	2.0	1413	$2,850	$2.02	26d	1	1.12mi
8650 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,492	$1.78	0d	18	1.13mi
8560 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	888	$1,399	$1.58	0d	8	1.21mi
8551 W Carol Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1323	$2,095	$1.58	0d	1	1.23mi
8563 W Mission Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,950	$1.47	26d	1	1.27mi
8610 W Eva St Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,035	$1.68	23d	1	1.28mi
8610 W Eva St Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,985	$1.64	5d	1	1.28mi
10860 N 85th Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,225	$1.57	45d	1	1.28mi
10860 N 85th Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	630	$1,350	$2.14	5d	1	1.28mi
10860 N 85th Ave Unit 87 Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,149	$1.47	7d	1	1.30mi
9514 W El Caminito Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,850	$1.34	45d	1	1.35mi
9503 W Las Palmaritas Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,200	$0.94	7d	1	1.43mi
10421 W Puget Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,750	$1.23	26d	1	1.47mi
8544 W Lawrence Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,695	$1.30	7d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $84 · $1,008/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-03-20
   listed $189,900 Active 78-char remark

   Show marketing remark (78 chars)

   Nice and quiet. Adult community low maintenance. close to everything you need.

5. 2026-03-03
   historical
6. 2026-01-14
   listed $193,500 Active
7. 2025-12-03
   historical
8. 2025-10-14
   listed $193,500 Active
9. 2011-03-22
   historical
10. 2011-01-11
    price $39,000
11. 2010-08-03
    price $60,000
12. 2010-08-02
    listed $50,000 Active
13. 2004-10-08
    soldstatus $81,900
14. 2004-10-08
    soldstatus $81,900
15. 2004-09-23
    historical
16. 2004-06-22
    listed $81,900
17. 2004-06-11
    soldstatus $55,250
18. 2004-06-10
    soldstatus $55,250
19. 2004-03-01
    listed $56,950
20. 1993-04-23
    soldstatus $33,000
21. 1973-09-10
    soldstatus $19,120

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $536 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,253 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$717/yr (+$60/mo · 133.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$536
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − HOA: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$830
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $2,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 60,918
• Household income: $67,380
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1879.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.77%
• Current HPI: 328.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.62%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+893.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $193,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $193,500 ARMLS
• 2011-03-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-01-11 Price Changed $39,000 ARMLS
• 2010-08-03 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2010-08-02 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2004-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $81,900 Public Records
• 2004-10-08 Sold (MLS) $81,900 ARMLS
• 2004-09-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-06-22 Listed $81,900 ARMLS
• 2004-06-11 Sold (MLS) $55,250 ARMLS
• 2004-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $55,250 Public Records
• 2004-03-01 Listed $56,950 ARMLS
• 1993-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1973-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $19,120 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $536 · -11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.