145 Southcrest Ave · Cheektowaga, NY 14225

$214,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1952 3,920 sqft lot Est $287k · 25% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 145 Southcrest - a meticulously updated 4-bed, 1-bath home on a spacious corner lot. Enjoy a fully upgraded interior featuring a stunning remodeled bathroom, new flooring, and a modern kitchen with brand new cabinets and countertops. This home boasts electrical enhancements and a new central AC system for year-round comfort. With new windows, a roof, and double insulation, it ensures energy efficiency and tranquility. Outside, the expansive corner lot is fenced for privacy, providing a secure space for outdoor activities. Conveniently located near amenities, schools, and parks, 145 Southcrest offers move-in ready comfort and ample space for a modern lifestyle. Don't miss the chan

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Cheektowaga-Maryvale Union Free School District (urban): math 67% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #154 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Maryvale Primary School (596 students, 43% FRL); Maryvale Middle School (math 42% / reading 74%, grade B, #182 of 729 statewide, top 25%, 478 students, 50% FRL); Maryvale High School (math 98% / reading 87%, grade A+, #158 of 1,100 statewide, top 15%, 615 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $191,991 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1290 George Urban Blvd	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,284 (+1%)	2mo	$259,000	$202	75
65 Nadine Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-2%)	1mo	$320,000	$258	74
15 Pleasant St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,215 (-4%)	2mo	$274,000	$226	70
31 Santin Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,256 (-1%)	0mo	$286,000	$228	67
4273 Union Rd	0.58mi	4/1.5	1,302 (+3%)	0mo	$245,000	$188	66
43 Barone Cir	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (-10%)	1mo	$180,000	$157	58
5 Nadine Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,100 (-13%)	4mo	$260,000	$236	55
1005 Maryvale Dr	0.69mi	4/1.0	1,369 (+8%)	4mo	$182,500	$133	51
30 Betty Lou Ln	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,120 (-12%)	1mo	$250,000	$223	50
70 Crandon Blvd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-11%)	3mo	$295,000	$260	41
17 Fath Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-15%)	3mo	$275,000	$255	40
247 Nagel Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,454 (+15%)	3mo	$235,000	$162	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-42,470
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-46,486
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14225

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$422 /mo · $5,067/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $193,349

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-61	+0% $-122	+5% $-183	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-198	+0% $-122	+5% $-46	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-67	base $-122	+0.5pp $-178	+1.0pp $-234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Cherokee Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	3d	1	0.57mi
47 Awood Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,500	$0.82	3d	1	1.36mi
1328 Cleveland Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1020	$2,200	$2.16	3d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2024-03-27
   soldstatus $202,000
2. 2024-02-22
   status Pending
3. 2024-02-07
   price $214,900
4. 2024-01-03
   listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,067 · $422/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,067 · $422/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$5,067
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$5,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $-245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheektowaga-Maryvale Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618600
• Math proficiency: 67% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $46,537
• Composite: 59.02/100
• National rank: #960
• State rank: #154 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 33,620
• Household income: $67,237
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 991.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.26%
• Current HPI: 320.6248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $202,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-02-07 Price Changed $214,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-03 Listed $219,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,067 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.