8148 S Hill Rd · Cattaraugus, NY 14719

$26,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1900 4.71 ac lot $15/sqft · 81% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adjacent to small creek in back of lot, ENTIRE UNIT IS full rehab project to deal with, vacant for a long time. AS IS WHERE IS, CASH ONLY,

Key facts

• 4.71 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 103 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $27k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $27k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#973 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #460 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($186 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $24,479 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.84%
• DSCR: 6.11
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,032
• List price: $26,900
• Delta: -80.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8296 N Otto Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,758 (-1%)	10mo	$286,000	$163	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.04×
• Total profit: $60,576
• Equity at exit: $24,234

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.90×
• Total profit: $142,320
• Equity at exit: $52,261

Cash invested: $7,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14719

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$141
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $404/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $235

Max offer price $26,900

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,725
• Closing costs: $807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $26,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $26,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $26,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $26,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $26,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $26,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $26,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $26,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $26,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $26,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $26,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $26,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $26,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $26,900 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $26,900 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Adjacent to small creek in back of lot, ENTIRE UNIT IS full rehab project to deal with, vacant for a long time. AS IS WHERE IS, CASH ONLY,

16. 2026-04-16
    price $27,900 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Adjacent to small creek in back of lot, ENTIRE UNIT IS full rehab project to deal with, vacant for a long time. AS IS WHERE IS, CASH ONLY,

17. 2026-04-01
    price $28,900 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Adjacent to small creek in back of lot, ENTIRE UNIT IS full rehab project to deal with, vacant for a long time. AS IS WHERE IS, CASH ONLY,

18. 2026-03-06
    listed $29,900 Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Adjacent to small creek in back of lot, ENTIRE UNIT IS full rehab project to deal with, vacant for a long time. AS IS WHERE IS, CASH ONLY,

19. 2025-05-15
    historical
20. 2025-03-27
    listed $55,000 Active
21. 2025-03-14
    historical
22. 2024-12-16
    price $60,000
23. 2024-09-24
    listed $65,000 Active
24. 2005-06-13
    soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,507
• − Property taxes: −$404
• − Insurance: −$134
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − Depreciation: −$783
• Taxable income: $8,742
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,098
• After-tax cash flow: $6,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600024
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,623
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4159
• State rank: #460 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cattaraugus

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #973
• US rank: #19013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.94%
• Current HPI: 331.9433
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-61.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $26,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $27,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $28,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $29,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-05-15 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-14 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $60,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-24 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2005-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,977 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.