1965 West side Hwy #19 · Lexington, WA 98626

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1975 $56/sqft · 5% below area Est $53k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable and low maintenance 1975 Manufactured Home in convenient location to I-5, county's Riverside Park, near fishing and more. Open living room and kitchen area. Updated bathroom. Very light with lots of windows. Daikin ductless heating and cooling. Small fenced area in back of home on nice corner lot. Accessibility features including ramps and rails. Tough shed included. One car covered carport.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Fenced back yard
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• WALK-IN SHOWER
• FENCED BACK YARD
• COVERED DECK
• STORAGE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.4% vs local median 3.5% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kelso School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 291 in WA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $50k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 118.10%
• DSCR: 6.25
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,714
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -5.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1965 West Side Hwy #46	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (+3%)	10mo	$55,000	$60	72
1965 West Side Hwy #48	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+12%)	9mo	$72,500	$72	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $81,860
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.88×
• Total profit: $193,984
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98626

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $147/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $1,375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $373

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,403	-5% $1,389	+0% $1,375	+5% $1,361	+10% $1,347
Rent	-10% $1,208	-5% $1,292	+0% $1,375	+5% $1,459	+10% $1,542
Rate	-1.0pp $1,400	-0.5pp $1,388	base $1,375	+0.5pp $1,362	+1.0pp $1,349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Chickadee Dr Kelso, WA	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,400	$2.23	44d	1	1.28mi
104 Solomon Rd Kelso, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,950	$2.18	44d	7	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $49,900 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-03-20
   price $49,900
4. 2025-11-24
   listed $55,000 Active
5. 2018-03-15
   soldstatus $21,000 Sold 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   Affordable and low maintenance 1975 Manufactured Home in convenient location to I-5, county's Riverside Park, near fishing and more. Open living room and kitchen area. Updated bathroom. Very light with lots of windows. Daikin ductless heating and cooling. Small fenced area in back of home on nice corner lot. Accessibility features including ramps and rails. Tough shed included. One car covered carport.

6. 2018-03-15
   soldstatus $21,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   Affordable and low maintenance 1975 Manufactured Home in convenient location to I-5, county's Riverside Park, near fishing and more. Open living room and kitchen area. Updated bathroom. Very light with lots of windows. Daikin ductless heating and cooling. Small fenced area in back of home on nice corner lot. Accessibility features including ramps and rails. Tough shed included. One car covered carport.

7. 2018-02-22
   status Pending 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   Affordable and low maintenance 1975 Manufactured Home in convenient location to I-5, county's Riverside Park, near fishing and more. Open living room and kitchen area. Updated bathroom. Very light with lots of windows. Daikin ductless heating and cooling. Small fenced area in back of home on nice corner lot. Accessibility features including ramps and rails. Tough shed included. One car covered carport.

8. 2018-02-22
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   Affordable and low maintenance 1975 Manufactured Home in convenient location to I-5, county's Riverside Park, near fishing and more. Open living room and kitchen area. Updated bathroom. Very light with lots of windows. Daikin ductless heating and cooling. Small fenced area in back of home on nice corner lot. Accessibility features including ramps and rails. Tough shed included. One car covered carport.

9. 2018-01-26
   price $21,000

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   Affordable and low maintenance 1975 Manufactured Home in convenient location to I-5, county's Riverside Park, near fishing and more. Open living room and kitchen area. Updated bathroom. Very light with lots of windows. Daikin ductless heating and cooling. Small fenced area in back of home on nice corner lot. Accessibility features including ramps and rails. Tough shed included. One car covered carport.

10. 2018-01-26
    price $21,000 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Affordable and low maintenance 1975 Manufactured Home in convenient location to I-5, county's Riverside Park, near fishing and more. Open living room and kitchen area. Updated bathroom. Very light with lots of windows. Daikin ductless heating and cooling. Small fenced area in back of home on nice corner lot. Accessibility features including ramps and rails. Tough shed included. One car covered carport.

11. 2017-12-14
    listed $25,000 Active 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Affordable and low maintenance 1975 Manufactured Home in convenient location to I-5, county's Riverside Park, near fishing and more. Open living room and kitchen area. Updated bathroom. Very light with lots of windows. Daikin ductless heating and cooling. Small fenced area in back of home on nice corner lot. Accessibility features including ramps and rails. Tough shed included. One car covered carport.

12. 2017-12-14
    listed $25,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Affordable and low maintenance 1975 Manufactured Home in convenient location to I-5, county's Riverside Park, near fishing and more. Open living room and kitchen area. Updated bathroom. Very light with lots of windows. Daikin ductless heating and cooling. Small fenced area in back of home on nice corner lot. Accessibility features including ramps and rails. Tough shed included. One car covered carport.

13. 2015-05-01
    historical
14. 2015-05-01
    soldstatus $9,000 Sold
15. 2015-04-22
    status Pending
16. 2015-03-26
    price $13,000
17. 2015-02-19
    listed $15,000 Active
18. 2009-05-11
    soldstatus $13,000
19. 2009-04-29
    historical
20. 2009-03-11
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $147 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$342/yr (+$29/mo · 233.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$147
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,029
• − Management: −$2,029
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $16,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,999
• After-tax cash flow: $12,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelso School District
• NCES district ID: 5300003
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,840
• Composite: 39.83/100
• National rank: #7963
• State rank: #191 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lexington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, WA
• County: Cowlitz County · 77,527 people
• Metro: Longview, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,892
• Household income: $75,528
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 722.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -321.36%
• Current HPI: 262.8196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.10%
• Metro: Longview, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+232.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $49,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $55,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-15 Sold (MLS) $21,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-15 Sold (MLS) $21,000 RMLS
• 2018-02-22 Pending — RMLS
• 2018-02-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-26 Price Changed $21,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-26 Price Changed $21,000 RMLS
• 2017-12-14 Listed $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-14 Listed $25,000 RMLS
• 2015-05-01 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-01 Sold (MLS) $9,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-26 Price Changed $13,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-19 Listed $15,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-11 Sold (MLS) $13,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-29 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-11 Listed $15,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $147 · -11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.