5016 Lower Elm St · South Fulton, GA 30349

$195,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,588 sqft · Townhouse public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2007 1,916 ac lot $123/sqft · 21% below area Est $263k · 26% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity with incredible potential! This spacious townhouse offers the perfect chance for buyers to add their personal touch and create the home they've been looking for. Featuring a functional layout and strong potential value, this property is ready for renovation and customization. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways. Property is being sold As-Is, Where-Is with no disclosures. Seller will make no repairs. Cash / Conventional loan recommended. Don't miss the opportunity to transform this diamond in the rough into something special!

Key facts

• $100 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing offered As-Is; Accepted financing: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: HOA with annual fee (association fee $1,200) covering insurance, grounds maintenance, and pest control; Community clubhouse, park, playground, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 parking space)
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Sewer connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 2007; Concrete construction; Slab foundation; Other roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Level, private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast area with breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanities; High ceilings; Separate shower; Walk-in closets; Factory-built fireplace with gas starter in family room; Foyer and great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet on upper level; In-hall laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Renaissance Es (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 601 students, 100% FRL); Renaissance Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #301 of 470 statewide, top 66%, 1,166 students, 71% FRL); Westlake High School (math 27% / reading 5%, grade F, #287 of 424 statewide, top 68%, 2,461 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 41% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 651 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $195k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.14%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,598
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -25.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4991 Lower Elm St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,424 (-10%)	0mo	$199,900	$140	81
4957 Lower Elm St	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,520 (-4%)	7mo	$245,000	$161	81
5019 Lower Elm St	0.07mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,476 (-7%)	1mo	$125,320	$85	79
4992 Lower Elm St	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,679 (+6%)	11mo	$247,000	$147	79
5063 Lower Elm St	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+9%)	15mo	$253,000	$146	64
5076 Lower Elm St	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,400 (-12%)	17mo	$200,000	$143	59
960 Belfry Ter	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,539 (-3%)	20mo	$297,000	$193	54
1008 Belfry Ter	0.48mi	3/3.5	1,685 (+6%)	19mo	$300,000	$178	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $119,759
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $330,759
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30349

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 651
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,448/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,782

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $390	-5% $335	+0% $280	+5% $224	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $195	+0% $280	+5% $364	+10% $448
Rate	-1.0pp $378	-0.5pp $329	base $280	+0.5pp $229	+1.0pp $178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4660 Derrick Rd Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,724	$2.65	2d	32	0.55mi
4407 Sparrow Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.0	2055	$2,335	$1.14	2d	10	0.99mi
4095 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	2196	$2,023	$0.92	44d	1	1.09mi
4108 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,400	$1.34	44d	1	1.09mi
4407 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,875	$1.14	44d	1	1.14mi
4420 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1622	$2,130	$1.31	44d	1	1.18mi
4365 Stonewall Tell Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,823	$1.25	44d	1	1.19mi
4223 Reeshemah St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1843	$1,995	$1.08	6d	1	1.20mi
4064 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1874	$1,895	$1.01	25d	1	1.20mi
4062 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.0	1874	$1,910	$1.02	25d	1	1.22mi
4056 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1174	$1,895	$1.61	25d	1	1.23mi
5055 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1692	$2,153	$1.27	2d	76	1.23mi
4551 Derby Loop Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.0	2152	$2,099	$0.98	44d	1	1.29mi
5505 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	4.0	4.0	1885	$2,595	$1.38	44d	1	1.35mi
5505 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	4.0	4.0	1885	$2,595	$1.38	22d	1	1.35mi
5505 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,501	$1.67	25d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $195,000 Under Contract 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-05-04
   listed $195,000 New 584-char remark
6. 2019-07-30
   historical
7. 2019-07-18
   listed $140,000 New
8. 2015-12-01
   historical
9. 2015-10-27
   price $85,000
10. 2015-09-11
    listed $92,699 New
11. 2010-10-27
    soldstatus $55,000
12. 2010-05-25
    price $55,000 Pending Approval
13. 2010-05-14
    price $49,900 Reduced

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,448
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$75
• After-tax cash flow: $3,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — South Fulton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Fulton, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 127,674
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 79,872
• Household income: $67,023
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4258.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% White 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.01%
• Current HPI: 407.99
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+290.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $195,000 GAMLS
• 2019-07-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2019-07-18 Listed $140,000 GAMLS
• 2015-12-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2015-10-27 Price Changed $85,000 GAMLS
• 2015-09-11 Listed $92,699 GAMLS
• 2010-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-25 Price Changed $55,000 GAMLS
• 2010-05-14 Price Changed $49,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,448 · -41.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.