11820 154th St · New York, NY 11434

$294,888

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1925 1,350 sqft lot Est $557k · 47% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, contractors, and savvy buyers. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Jamaica, Queens presents an incredible opportunity to unlock value and maximize returns. Whether you're looking for your next fix-and-flip project, a buy-and-hold rental investment, or a renovation opportunity to build equity, this property is loaded with potential. Featuring a traditional layout and solid footprint, this home is ready for a complete transformation. With the right vision and updates, the possibilities are endless. Conveniently located near transportation, shopping, schools, parks, and major roadways, the location offers strong appeal for both future homeowners and tenants alike. Bring your

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Near parks

Tags

• SOLID FOOTPRINT
• RENOVATION OPPORTUNITY
• NEAR TRANSPORTATION
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR PARKS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public trash collection; Water available
• Home design: Townhouse / Single-family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,464 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.89%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $557,274
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118-39 153rd St	0.05mi	2/1.5	810 (+3%)	0mo	$550,000	$679	90
15209 118th Ave	0.08mi	2/2.0	725 (-8%)	6mo	$395,000	$545	75
153-36 118th Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0	702 (-11%)	3mo	$640,000	$912	74
12313 144th St	0.53mi	2/1.0	842 (+7%)	2mo	$390,000	$463	62
12840 146th St	0.71mi	2/2.0	784 (-0%)	1mo	$600,000	$765	62
150-16 115th Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	882 (+12%)	5mo	$540,000	$612	59
12322 146th St	0.44mi	3/2.5 (+1)	826 (+5%)	9mo	$660,000	$799	52
120-35 144th St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	700 (-11%)	10mo	$650,000	$929	42
114-14 Inwood St	0.57mi	2/2.0	888 (+13%)	8mo	$630,000	$709	41
11429 146th St	0.50mi	3/3.0 (+1)	896 (+14%)	4mo	$675,000	$753	37
146-04 130th Ave	0.75mi	3/2.5 (+1)	873 (+11%)	1mo	$380,000	$435	35
169-06 Foch Blvd Foch	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	880 (+12%)	11mo	$620,000	$705	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,010
• Equity at exit: $43,969

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $13,898
• Equity at exit: $25,497

Cash invested: $82,569 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11434

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,688/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,397

Max offer price $294,888

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $572	-5% $489	+0% $405	+5% $322	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $176	-5% $290	+0% $405	+5% $520	+10% $635
Rate	-1.0pp $554	-0.5pp $480	base $405	+0.5pp $329	+1.0pp $251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,722
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120-06 172nd St Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	25d	1	0.83mi
17203 119th Ave Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1090	$3,300	$3.03	25d	1	0.85mi
12606 172nd St Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1050	$3,200	$3.05	19d	1	0.89mi
108-46 153rd St Unit 1FL Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$2,900	$3.22	25d	1	0.91mi
133-24 150th St Unit LL Jamaica, NY	1.0	1.5	700	$1,800	$2.57	19d	1	0.92mi
139-22 Lakewood Ave Unit 2F Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1008	$3,250	$3.22	25d	1	0.98mi
12169 133rd St South Ozone Park, NY	3.0	1.0	1020	$3,500	$3.43	25d	1	1.03mi
11529 126th St South Ozone Park, NY	2.0	1.5	940	$3,058	$3.25	16d	1	1.27mi
170-16 143rd Rd Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1125	$3,600	$3.20	25d	1	1.31mi
105-17 170th St Unit 1 Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	850	$3,200	$3.76	25d	1	1.39mi
167-14 145th Ave Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$3,235	$3.23	25d	1	1.41mi
103-20 168th Pl Unit 2nd floor Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,900	$2.90	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,888 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,888 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,888 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,888 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,888 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,888 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,888 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,888 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,888 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,888 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $294,888 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,688 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,836 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,148/yr (+$96/mo · 42.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,518
• − Property taxes: −$2,688
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,793
• − Management: −$2,793
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable income: $71
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17
• After-tax cash flow: $4,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 68,263
• Household income: $77,598
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3168.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Mexico, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -539.32%
• Current HPI: 111.2067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $294,888 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Listed $295,888 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,688 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.