26 Firelite Rd · Conway, NH 03860

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2000 $89/sqft · 21% below area Est $189k · 21% under $619/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy living in the heart of Conway! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers over 1,600 square feet of comfortable, single-level living on a desirable corner lot. Built in 2000, the home features central air for year-round comfort and a layout that provides both functionality and flexibility. The sun-filled living spaces create a warm and inviting atmosphere, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. With generous room sizes and a well-designed floor plan, there’s plenty of space to relax and make it your own. Enjoy private access to the Saco River just a short walk from the property - perfect for swimming, kayaking, and relaxing along the sandy shoreline. Idea

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Nearby skiing
• Corner lot

Tags

• PRIVATE ACCESS TO SACO RIVER
• CORNER LOT
• SHORT WALK TO SANDY SHORELINE
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• NEARBY SKIING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in a cooperative mobile park (Black Bear Cooperative); mobile make Commodore, model BV502, serial #CZ37228AB; Waterbody: Saco River with shared-private access
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee and one-time buy-in: monthly fee of 619 and one-time fee of 250; Association amenities include beach access, basketball court and playground; Located in Black Bear Cooperative Village (mobile park approved)

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers (NH Electric Co-op); Oil fuel (B & L); High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (Manuf/Mobile); Single-story (manufactured); Built in 2000; Faces unknown
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot in a country setting; Deed-restricted; Leased site; Level lot; Near paths, shopping, skiing, hospital and schools; Shared-private water access to Saco River; Public road frontage; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Carpet and laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($931/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#33 in NH, #4,690 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conway School District (rural): math 28% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in NH (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Tree Elementary School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #219 of 263 statewide, top 86%, 221 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $149k implies a 496% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,675
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -21.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Birchmeadow Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	12mo	$145,000	$96	65
9 Longbow Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	21mo	$165,500	$109	58
124 Lamplighter Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+13%)	23mo	$150,000	$79	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-18,803
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,382
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03860

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,011/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$619
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,063

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $619 · $7,428/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $149,000 Active 917-char remark
16. 2011-10-14
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,011 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,630 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,011
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,075
• − Management: −$2,075
• − HOA: −$7,428
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$258
• After-tax cash flow: $1,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 3302490
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,590
• Composite: 31.9/100
• National rank: #5859
• State rank: #73 of 98 in NH

Livability — Conway

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #4690

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conway, NH
• Population (ZIP): 3,780

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,072 people
• By 2030: 43,158 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 38,044 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 33,087 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 25,661 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 18,684 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Serbian 7% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.8% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: D+1.5 2016: R+5.7 2012: R+0.8 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.63%
• Current HPI: 393.4218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+496.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $149,000 PrimeMLS
• 2011-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,011 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.