528 S Catherine St · Baltimore, MD 21223

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Townhouse public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1920 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special with serious upside! Located in the Millhill neighborhood of Baltimore City, this two-story townhouse is packed with potential for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip or add to your rental portfolio, this is the type of opportunity you don’t want to miss. The layout offers the possibility for 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms on the upper level, plus a basement that can be finished to include an additional bedroom and full bath… adding even more value. The backyard provides solid outdoor space, perfect for future improvements or tenant enjoyment. Conveniently located near Westside Shopping Center, Grace Medical Center, and Carroll P

Key facts

• Two-story townhouse
• Backyard
• Built 1920

Tags

• TWO-STORY TOWNHOUSE
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Three total levels; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Rubber roof
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas cooling fuel
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Basement present (Other type)
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $49,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$99,372) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $998 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $49k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.33%
• DSCR: 4.89
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,372
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2402 Wilkens Ave	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (0%)	0mo	$45,000	$41	94
2408 Wilkens Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,092 (0%)	2mo	$99,900	$91	93
2008 Wilkens Ave	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,100 (+1%)	4mo	$145,000	$132	74
528 S Bentalou St	0.09mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,032 (-6%)	0mo	$190,000	$184	73
2130 Eagle St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-8%)	2mo	$78,110	$78	65
43 Wheeler Ave N	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+5%)	3mo	$34,000	$30	62
1834 Wilkens Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+10%)	3mo	$36,000	$30	59
1052 Parksley Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-4%)	4mo	$110,000	$105	53
2576 W Baltimore St W	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	2mo	$152,000	$127	50
2544 W Fairmount Ave	0.61mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,204 (+10%)	2mo	$55,000	$46	46
2141 Vine St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+10%)	3mo	$20,000	$17	45
1906 W Fairmount Ave	0.70mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,200 (+10%)	3mo	$134,900	$112	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $63,466
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.6%
• Equity multiple: 13.56×
• Total profit: $172,357
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $305/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $998

Break-even live

Break-even rent $383

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2514 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1344	$1,800	$1.34	43d	1	0.05mi
2514 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1344	$1,800	$1.34	10d	1	0.05mi
2509 Christian St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1248	$1,699	$1.36	3d	1	0.06mi
2671 Saint Benedict St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1144	$1,325	$1.16	43d	1	0.23mi
2657 Lehman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,000	$0.95	43d	1	0.24mi
2540 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.26mi
332 S Franklintown Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	776	$795	$1.02	23d	1	0.29mi
307 S Smallwood St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1400	$1,350	$0.96	43d	1	0.31mi
2738 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1183	$1,500	$1.27	43d	1	0.34mi
514 S Payson St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,750	$1.38	43d	1	0.35mi
2737 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1232	$1,650	$1.34	4d	1	0.35mi
110 S Catherine St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,500	$1.13	43d	1	0.38mi
2537 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	23d	1	0.49mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.50mi
2225 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	0.55mi
2232 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,875	$1.50	23d	1	0.56mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	17d	1	0.63mi
1918 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,434	$1.67	43d	1	0.67mi
1912 W Baltimore St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,100	$1.75	23d	1	0.68mi
1839 W Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1426	$1,675	$1.17	23d	1	0.76mi
1635 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,850	$1.51	43d	1	0.78mi
3130 Stafford St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	20d	1	0.81mi
1601 Frederick Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	4d	1	0.83mi
305 S Calhoun St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	21d	1	0.85mi
2012 W Saratoga St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	23d	1	0.87mi
1931 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	912	$1,349	$1.48	4d	1	0.88mi
1846 W Saratoga St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,300	$1.04	43d	1	0.92mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.93mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	23d	1	0.93mi
1303 James St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,350	$1.16	23d	1	0.94mi
1262 Glyndon Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.0	1258	$1,850	$1.47	23d	1	0.94mi
1432 Carroll St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	912	$1,900	$2.08	43d	1	0.95mi
1101 S Carey St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	21d	1	0.97mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,950	$1.78	12d	1	0.97mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,860	$1.70	4d	1	0.97mi
2815 W Mulberry St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1040	$2,050	$1.97	43d	1	0.99mi
1127 S Carey St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,900	$1.42	4d	1	0.99mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	23d	1	1.00mi
2056 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,495	$1.22	21d	1	1.00mi
10 S Carey St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,550	$1.36	23d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $49,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $55,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    listed $55,000 Active
15. 2026-05-07
    historical
16. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $55,000 Active
18. 2021-09-15
    historical
19. 2021-08-20
    price $25,000
20. 2021-08-09
    listed $29,500 Active
21. 2009-09-28
    soldstatus $26,000
22. 2009-09-28
    price $30,000 Sold
23. 2009-09-28
    soldstatus $26,000 Sold
24. 2009-09-23
    historical
25. 2009-08-24
    historical
26. 2009-08-22
    price $300,000
27. 2009-07-26
    price $35,000
28. 2009-07-14
    price $39,900
29. 2009-07-06
    price $47,000
30. 2009-06-09
    listed $30,000
31. 2009-06-09
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $305 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $420 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$114/yr (+$10/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$305
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $11,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,852
• After-tax cash flow: $9,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+10.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-09-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-20 Price Changed $25,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-09 Listed $29,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-28 Sold (MLS) $26,000 MRIS
• 2009-09-28 Price Changed $30,000 MRIS
• 2009-09-28 Sold (MLS) $26,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-08-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-08-22 Price Changed $300,000 MRIS
• 2009-07-26 Price Changed $35,000 MRIS
• 2009-07-14 Price Changed $39,900 MRIS
• 2009-07-06 Price Changed $47,000 MRIS
• 2009-06-09 Listed $30,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-06-09 Listed $49,900 MRIS

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $305 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.