538 Bellridge Rd · Washington, LA 70570

$127,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

15 ac lot $92/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quaint cottage home sitting on roughly 15 acres. The welcoming front porch leads into the formal living room. Off of the kitchen you'll find the dining room as well as a den that can be used for a flex space or additional living space. The acreage gives ample space to accommodate a mini ranch or farm. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Flex space
• Front porch
• Farm

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• FLEX SPACE
• MINI RANCH
• FARM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#376 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Landry Parish (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #54 of 98 in LA (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in St. Landry Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Landry County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,455 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,998
• List price: $127,000
• Delta: -51.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-14,135
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,160
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70570

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $965

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $138	+0% $102	+5% $66	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $59	+0% $102	+5% $145	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $134	base $102	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $127,000 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $127,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $127,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $127,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $127,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-04-16
    listed $150,000 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Quaint cottage home sitting on roughly 15 acres. The welcoming front porch leads into the formal living room. Off of the kitchen you'll find the dining room as well as a den that can be used for a flex space or additional living space. The acreage gives ample space to accommodate a mini ranch or farm. Schedule your showing today!

13. 2018-12-20
    soldstatus $139,500
14. 2018-12-17
    soldstatus $139,500 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Country living-14.652 acres of cleared land with a well-built, wood-frame house. The home is on piers and features a front and back porch, 2BR/1BA, C/H/A, 5-year old roof, living room, dining room, den, an updated kitchen, and an extra room. Also included is a small barn and metal building.

15. 2018-03-26
    listed $139,500 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Country living-14.652 acres of cleared land with a well-built, wood-frame house. The home is on piers and features a front and back porch, 2BR/1BA, C/H/A, 5-year old roof, living room, dining room, den, an updated kitchen, and an extra room. Also included is a small barn and metal building.

16. 2017-03-10
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $525 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $698 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$174/yr (+$14/mo · 33.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable loss: −$935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$224
• After-tax cash flow: $1,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Landry Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201560
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -35.00%
• Median HH income: $32,635
• Composite: 21.59/100
• National rank: #8303
• State rank: #54 of 98 in LA

Livability — Washington

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #23719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 37,188

Population outlook (St. Landry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,114 people
• By 2030: 82,110 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 79,445 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 75,855 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 65,684 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 51,739 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 37% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Landry

• 2024 margin: R (+18.8) · D 40.0% · R 58.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -18.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+11.9 2012: R+4.3 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.38%
• Current HPI: 98.4256
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $150,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $139,500 Public Records
• 2018-12-17 Sold (MLS) $139,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-03-26 Listed $139,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $525 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.