53900 Inlet Dr · Nikiski, AK 99611

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 918 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1968 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Mobile home construction with wood frame; Built in 1968; Not attached to another property; Not new construction
• Construction: Mobile home on other type of foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Landscaping; Fire service area; Road service area; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (1 full, 1 half)
• Interior features: Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.2% in Nikiski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#131 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikiski North Star Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 156 statewide, top 70%, 242 students, 52% FRL); Nikiski Middle/Senior High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #39 of 61 statewide, top 65%, 326 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.03%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $18,249
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $67,387
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99611

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $301/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $999

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $707	-5% $669	+0% $631	+5% $593	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $489	-5% $560	+0% $631	+5% $702	+10% $773
Rate	-1.0pp $699	-0.5pp $665	base $631	+0.5pp $596	+1.0pp $560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-19
   listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $301 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 216.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$301
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $5,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $6,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Nikiski

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #22928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nikiski, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,028

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.50%
• Current HPI: 169.2848
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $135,000 AKMLS
• 2022-04-20 Listed $90,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $301 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.