20806 Sumac Grv · San Antonio, TX 78264

$191,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $192k · at est. $51/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $192k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $149,616 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,909
• List price: $191,999
• Delta: 0.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20922 Sumac Grv	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	2mo	$200,999	$128	94
20918 Sumac Grv	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$197,999	$124	93
21034 Sumac Grv	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	4mo	$195,999	$122	92
20930 Sumac Grv	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$197,999	$124	92
20827 Pinon Grv	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	5mo	$201,999	$128	91
21002 Sumac Grv	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	3mo	$200,999	$126	90
20723 Maple Grv	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	3mo	$213,999	$136	89
3605 Mccrae Xing	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-8%)	3mo	$185,000	$128	76
20902 Sumac Grv	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	2mo	$195,999	$140	74
3635 Strawberry	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,441 (-8%)	6mo	$244,000	$169	69
20823 Pinon Grv	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	6mo	$200,999	$143	68
20830 Pinon Grv	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	5mo	$208,999	$149	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $20,482
• Equity at exit: $96,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $78,898
• Equity at exit: $157,722

Cash invested: $53,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$240 /mo · $2,880/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $163,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-130	+0% $-196	+5% $-262	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-255	+0% $-196	+5% $-137	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-147	base $-196	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,000
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20823 Pinon Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,650	$1.18	44d	1	0.08mi
20414 Deets Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,750	$0.94	4d	1	0.44mi
20335 Campbellton Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,450	$1.04	44d	1	0.63mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	3d	1	0.67mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	24d	1	0.67mi
20448 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	24d	1	0.87mi
20642 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	22d	1	0.89mi
20447 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,320	$1.07	24d	1	0.90mi
20622 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,550	$1.01	44d	1	0.92mi
20618 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,450	$1.23	5d	1	0.92mi
2906 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,550	$1.14	44d	1	0.96mi
3008 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,195	$1.01	3d	1	0.96mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,400	$1.16	16d	1	1.02mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,350	$1.12	44d	1	1.02mi
20511 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	18d	1	1.04mi
2807 Ruby Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,400	$1.10	24d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $191,999 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $191,999 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $191,999 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $191,999 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $191,999 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $191,999 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $191,999 Price Change 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $191,999 Price Change 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $191,999 Price Change 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $191,999 Price Change 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $191,999 Price Change 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $191,999 Price Change 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $191,999 Price Change 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricestatus $193,999 Price Change 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $213,999 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $213,999 Price Change 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $219,999 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-04-30
    price $222,999 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2026-04-03
    listed $225,999 New 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,755
• − Property taxes: −$2,880
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable loss: −$5,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,371
• After-tax cash flow: $-980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-family home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance needs. It offers a spacious open-concept floor plan and is well-suited for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $219,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2026-04-03 Listed $225,999 LERA