20738 Watson Dr · Central, LA 70791

$89,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2017 0.44 ac lot $90/sqft · 92% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HASSLE-FREE MODERN LIVING! Built NEW in 2017, this impeccably maintained 2BR/2BA home offers ultimate peace of mind. Engineered for safety, the home sits a full 18 INCHES ABOVE the 2016 flood line. Situated on nearly a HALF-ACRE lot, you'll enjoy a massive backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or entertaining. The home is move-in ready and includes a stove, refrigerator, and washer/dryer set. Enjoy the outdoors from both your front and back porches! Storage is a breeze with TWO included storage units on-site. Modern construction, energy-efficient features, and a huge private lot make this a rare find at this price point. Priced for a quick CASH SALE. $109,999.00. Don't miss out on this "high and dry" gem!

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.3% in Central — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#25 in LA, #4,761 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Central Community School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #9 of 98 in LA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 584 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $90k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,599 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.86%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,756
• List price: $89,999
• Delta: 92.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-5,224
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $13,112
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70791

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 584
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $681/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $142	+0% $117	+5% $91	+10% $66
Rent	-10% $6	-5% $61	+0% $117	+5% $172	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $139	base $117	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-14
   pricestatusdays on market $89,999 Pending 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,777 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,777 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,777 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,777 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,777 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,777 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,777 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,777 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,777 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,777 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-05-07
    price $99,777 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    HASSLE-FREE MODERN LIVING! Built NEW in 2017, this impeccably maintained 2BR/2BA home offers ultimate peace of mind. Engineered for safety, the home sits a full 18 INCHES ABOVE the 2016 flood line. Situated on nearly a HALF-ACRE lot, you’ll enjoy a massive backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or entertaining. The home is move-in ready and includes a stove, refrigerator, and washer/dryer set. Enjoy the outdoors from both your front and back porches! Storage is a breeze with TWO included storage units on-site. Modern construction, energy-efficient features, and a huge private lot make this a rare find at this price point. Priced for a quick CASH SALE. $109,999.00. Don't miss out on this "high and dry" gem!

13. 2026-05-07
    price $99,777 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    HASSLE-FREE MODERN LIVING! Built NEW in 2017, this impeccably maintained 2BR/2BA home offers ultimate peace of mind. Engineered for safety, the home sits a full 18 INCHES ABOVE the 2016 flood line. Situated on nearly a HALF-ACRE lot, you’ll enjoy a massive backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or entertaining. The home is move-in ready and includes a stove, refrigerator, and washer/dryer set. Enjoy the outdoors from both your front and back porches! Storage is a breeze with TWO included storage units on-site. Modern construction, energy-efficient features, and a huge private lot make this a rare find at this price point. Priced for a quick CASH SALE. $109,999.00. Don't miss out on this "high and dry" gem!

14. 2026-04-25
    price $107,499 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    HASSLE-FREE MODERN LIVING! Built NEW in 2017, this impeccably maintained 2BR/2BA home offers ultimate peace of mind. Engineered for safety, the home sits a full 18 INCHES ABOVE the 2016 flood line. Situated on nearly a HALF-ACRE lot, you'll enjoy a massive backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or entertaining. The home is move-in ready and includes a stove, refrigerator, and washer/dryer set. Enjoy the outdoors from both your front and back porches! Storage is a breeze with TWO included storage units on-site. Modern construction, energy-efficient features, and a huge private lot make this a rare find at this price point. Priced for a quick CASH SALE. $109,999.00. Don't miss out on this "high and dry" gem!

15. 2026-04-24
    price $107,499 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    HASSLE-FREE MODERN LIVING! Built NEW in 2017, this impeccably maintained 2BR/2BA home offers ultimate peace of mind. Engineered for safety, the home sits a full 18 INCHES ABOVE the 2016 flood line. Situated on nearly a HALF-ACRE lot, you’ll enjoy a massive backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or entertaining. The home is move-in ready and includes a stove, refrigerator, and washer/dryer set. Enjoy the outdoors from both your front and back porches! Storage is a breeze with TWO included storage units on-site. Modern construction, energy-efficient features, and a huge private lot make this a rare find at this price point. Priced for a quick CASH SALE. $109,999.00. Don't miss out on this "high and dry" gem!

16. 2026-04-02
    listed $109,999 Active 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    HASSLE-FREE MODERN LIVING! Built NEW in 2017, this impeccably maintained 2BR/2BA home offers ultimate peace of mind. Engineered for safety, the home sits a full 18 INCHES ABOVE the 2016 flood line. Situated on nearly a HALF-ACRE lot, you’ll enjoy a massive backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or entertaining. The home is move-in ready and includes a stove, refrigerator, and washer/dryer set. Enjoy the outdoors from both your front and back porches! Storage is a breeze with TWO included storage units on-site. Modern construction, energy-efficient features, and a huge private lot make this a rare find at this price point. Priced for a quick CASH SALE. $109,999.00. Don't miss out on this "high and dry" gem!

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $109,999 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    HASSLE-FREE MODERN LIVING! Built NEW in 2017, this impeccably maintained 2BR/2BA home offers ultimate peace of mind. Engineered for safety, the home sits a full 18 INCHES ABOVE the 2016 flood line. Situated on nearly a HALF-ACRE lot, you’ll enjoy a massive backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or entertaining. The home is move-in ready and includes a stove, refrigerator, and washer/dryer set. Enjoy the outdoors from both your front and back porches! Storage is a breeze with TWO included storage units on-site. Modern construction, energy-efficient features, and a huge private lot make this a rare find at this price point. Priced for a quick CASH SALE. $109,999.00. Don't miss out on this "high and dry" gem!

18. 2010-11-22
    soldstatus $19,766
19. 1992-08-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $681 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $681 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$681
• − Insurance: −$5,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,348
• − Management: −$1,348
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$59
• After-tax cash flow: $1,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2200125
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $66,584
• Composite: 46.02/100
• National rank: #2528
• State rank: #9 of 98 in LA

Livability — Central

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #4761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Central, LA
• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 399,686 people
• City population: 30,385
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 30,385
• Household income: $78,263
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.01%
• Current HPI: 170.2143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+404.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $99,777 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $99,777 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $107,499 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $107,499 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $109,999 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $109,999 AcadianaMLS
• 2010-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $19,766 Public Records
• 1992-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $681 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.