The Davenport II Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$244,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Davenport II offers expansive single level living space with so much flexibility. When entering the front of the home you'll have the choice of a living room, study or dining room. The spacious kitchen opens up to the family room with a large kitchen island, perfect to gather round. If you don't need 4 bedrooms, you may choose to build the home with 3 and use the flex area for a hobby space. If you need more bedrooms or just wish to have a loft, you may choose to add the optional bonus which can be configured as a large entertaining area or as a loft with additional 5th bedroom and full bathroom.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Flex area
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING SPACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• FLEX AREA
• OPTIONAL BONUS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12595 Canyon Falls Blvd, Willis TX 77318; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $244,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air
• Home design: Plan: The Davenport II; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1878

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 4 bedrooms; 2 bathrooms

🏗️ New construction. The $244,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $287,334.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,141 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,334
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9738 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-3%)	3mo	$289,260	$158	82
9754 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,682 (-10%)	3mo	$256,875	$153	73
12525 Canyon Hill Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-2%)	22mo	$266,000	$145	68
9758 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,061 (+10%)	2mo	$259,990	$126	68
12501 Falls Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,705 (-9%)	5mo	$269,900	$158	67
12355 Sunset Canyon Way	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-10%)	2mo	$259,190	$153	65
12529 Canyon Hill Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-11%)	13mo	$275,000	$164	62
12168 Hairston Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-5%)	14mo	$155,000	$86	52
9529 Maple Ridge Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-7%)	18mo	$159,990	$92	46
13054 Falling Oak Dr	0.53mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,016 (+7%)	18mo	$114,950	$57	39
718 Campbell Crossing Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,026 (+8%)	10mo	$429,900	$212	39
13074 Falling Oak Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,128 (+13%)	21mo	$155,000	$73	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-69,632
• Equity at exit: $42,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-106,725
• Equity at exit: $24,843

Cash invested: $80,454 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,507
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$359 /mo · $4,310/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,514

Max offer price $249,366

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-163	+0% $-262	+5% $-362	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-349	+0% $-262	+5% $-176	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-118	-0.5pp $-189	base $-262	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,834
• Closing costs: $8,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,455	$1.30	1d	6	0.21mi
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	44d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,990 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,990 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,990 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,990 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $244,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,095
• − Property taxes: −$4,310
• − Insurance: −$1,437
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − Depreciation: −$8,359
• Taxable loss: −$8,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Davenport II Plan is a move-in-ready single-family home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers spacious living areas and flexible room configurations, making it an attractive option for buyers and renters alike.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Flooring — New flooring can make the home more appealing to buyers.
• Both HVAC system — A new or well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both Exterior paint — Fresh exterior paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring — New flooring can make the home more appealing to buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A new or well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Exterior paint — Fresh exterior paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B