5813 Starling Circle Cir · Alexandria, LA 71301

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 216 Days on market

Built 1954 0.32 ac lot $127/sqft · 11% above area Est $153k · at est. ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION. This cottage home seamlessly combines timeless charm with modern amenities, creating a haven that you'll be proud to call home. This enchanting residence offers a perfect blend of comfort and style, surrounded by meticulously landscaped grounds that create a serene and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss the opportunity to make this enchanting property your home.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapides Parish (urban): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 98 in LA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 239 units permitted in Rapides Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rapides County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,500 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,018
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -2.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5636 W Circle Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,162 (-1%)	2mo	$145,000	$125	82
5647 W Circle Drive Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,044 (-12%)	2mo	$140,000	$134	71
5406 Edward Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,217 (+3%)	2mo	$30,000	$25	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-32,562
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-39,184
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71301

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,148

Max offer price $127,135

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5440 Downing St Alexandria, LA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1090	$985	$0.90	43d	4	0.82mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $149,900 Pending 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $149,900 Active 213 DOM
6. 2025-10-29
   listed $149,900 Active 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. This cottage home seamlessly combines timeless charm with modern amenities, creating a haven that you'll be proud to call home. This enchanting residence offers a perfect blend of comfort and style, surrounded by meticulously landscaped grounds that create a serene and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss the opportunity to make this enchanting property your home.

7. 2025-09-09
   price $149,900
8. 2025-06-05
   price $159,900
9. 2024-01-22
   listed $169,500
10. 2023-10-05
    listed $175,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$123/yr (+$10/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$946
• − Management: −$946
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$4,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $-519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapides Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $41,057
• Composite: 30.68/100
• National rank: #6179
• State rank: #31 of 98 in LA

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #13698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alexandria, LA
• City population: 25,138
• Population (ZIP): 17,266

Population outlook (Rapides County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,047 people
• By 2030: 132,333 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 129,355 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 124,535 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 110,338 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 88,641 · -33.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rapides

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.8) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -36.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.8 2020: R+32.1 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.38%
• Current HPI: 184.9889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-29 Listed $149,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $149,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $159,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-01-22 Listed $169,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-10-05 Listed $175,100 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $702 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.