152 Lake Shadows Cir · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2018 0.38 ac lot Est $265k · 34% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2018, this spacious double-wide home sits on two lots and offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 living areas. The front living room flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating an open-concept layout that is perfect for entertaining family and friends. The kitchen features a large walk-in pantry, providing ample storage space. The laundry room includes a convenient exterior door leading directly to the fenced backyard. An added bonus is the ceiling-mounted air vents. Outside, you'll find three storage buildings, offering plenty of room for tools, equipment, and hobbies, along with an in-ground storm shelter for added peace of mind. Enjoy the best of both worlds&mdash

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 2018
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential mobile home; Subdivision: Lake Shadows Sec 01; County: Henderson; Directions: Use GPS
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered spaces: 0; Carport spaces: 0; Circular driveway with additional parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Attached property; Built in 2018
• Construction: Year built: 2018
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot; Circular driveway; Additional parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; One living area; One dining area; Total room count: 3; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.3% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.42%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Lago Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-6%)	8mo	$209,000	$109	68
151 Big Chief Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,106 (+3%)	8mo	$399,000	$189	57
110 Lago Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-14%)	21mo	$229,999	$130	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,288
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,242
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $546	-5% $486	+0% $426	+5% $365	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $262	-5% $344	+0% $426	+5% $507	+10% $589
Rate	-1.0pp $514	-0.5pp $470	base $426	+0.5pp $380	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
602 Legendary Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,600	$1.10	44d	1	0.57mi
1319 W Main St Unit 1 Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,950	$1.26	44d	1	0.82mi
1319 W Main St #16 Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,695	$1.10	44d	1	0.88mi
150 Guadalupe Dr Mabank, TX	3.0	3.0	2297	$3,000	$1.31	44d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    status Active
19. 2026-04-27
    listed $175,000 Active
20. 2025-03-05
    historical
21. 2025-02-10
    listed $189,000 Active
22. 2025-02-10
    listed $189,000 Active
23. 2023-09-11
    price $249,999
24. 2023-09-08
    listed $272,000 Active
25. 2012-06-13
    soldstatus
26. 1994-09-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$592
• After-tax cash flow: $4,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-10 Listed $189,000 HCBOR
• 2025-02-10 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $249,999 HCBOR
• 2023-09-08 Listed $272,000 HCBOR
• 2012-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $53 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.