421 Las Tobia Dr · Carrizo Hill, TX 78834

$75,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1980 2.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

New Listing Location Location !! This perfect property is 2.05 acres with a small home 750 Sqft 2 bed 1 full bath corner lot with FM 1556 & Las Tobias & Mesquite St has all utilities light is not connected. Perfect for an RV park or build apartments. ; Original MLS#: 81452; Age Range: 41-50 Yrs; Appraisal District ID: 15578; Apx Bsmt SqFt: 0; Apx Lot Size SqFt: 0.00; Family Room/Den: Hard Surface; Kitchen: Electric, Grill/Range; Living Room: Hard Surface; Qualify: No; Streets: All Weather; Utility: Elec Connect

Key facts

• Electric grill range
• Hard surface
• 2.05 acres

Tags

• 2.05 ACRES
• CORNER LOT
• ALL UTILITIES
• ELECTRIC GRILL RANGE
• HARD SURFACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: City water and sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Siding exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Street access is paved

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($828 rent vs $76k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,500 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Carrizo Springs CISD (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #780 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Dimmit County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($522 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Dimmit County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.05%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $35,722
• Equity at exit: $50,289

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $95,604
• Equity at exit: $93,742

Cash invested: $21,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78834

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$396
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $592/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $603

Max offer price $75,500

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $199	+0% $177	+5% $156	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $144	+0% $177	+5% $210	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $196	base $177	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,875
• Closing costs: $2,265
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,500 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 521-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $75,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $592 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$790/yr (+$66/mo · 133.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,229
• − Property taxes: −$592
• − Insurance: −$378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$795
• − Management: −$795
• − Depreciation: −$2,196
• Taxable income: $948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$227
• After-tax cash flow: $1,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrizo Springs CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,354
• Composite: 17.03/100
• National rank: #9127
• State rank: #780 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carrizo Hill

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1500
• US rank: #25667

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrizo Hill, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,204

Population outlook (Dimmit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,089 people
• By 2030: 14,217 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 16,685 · +27.5%
• By 2050: 19,361 · +47.9%
• By 2075: 26,356 · +101.4%
• By 2100: 31,128 · +137.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 59% White 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Dimmit

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 48.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.7pp · 2024: 3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.3 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+37.2 2012: D+47.3 2008: D+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Current HPI: 127.0655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-17 Listed $75,500 LERA

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $592 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.