DAWSON Plan · Denton, TX 76259

$313,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 172 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dawson is a spacious two-story home offering approx. 2,154 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a game room, and a 2-car garage, providing flexibility for growing or multi-generational households. A welcoming front porch and foyer open into an inviting first-floor layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room flow together seamlessly to create a bright, open gathering space. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. A first-floor secondary bedroom and full bathroom offer convenient accommodations for guests or a private home office, while the primary living spaces remain open and connected. Upstairs, the private primary suite features a spacious bedroom, a walk-in closet, and an ensuite bathroom, creating a comfortable retreat. Three additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged around a large game room, offering space for relaxation, play, or media use. A dedicated laundry area and ample storage throughout the home add everyday convenience. With its versatile layout, modern features, and efficient use of space, the Dawson delivers comfort, functionality, and value in a well-designed two-story home. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 171 days

🏗️ New construction. The $313,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $339,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $314k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Krum Early Education Center (430 students, 49% FRL); Krum Middle (math 48% / reading 47%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 541 students, 37% FRL); Krum H S (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 686 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 365 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,272 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,990
• List price: $313,990
• Delta: -7.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Babbling Brook Dr	0.24mi	5/3.0	2,118 (-0%)	2mo	$369,775	$175	87
7728 Royal Fern Dr	0.30mi	5/3.0	2,129 (0%)	1mo	$305,990	$144	85
509 Red Admiral Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (-2%)	1mo	$338,990	$162	84
529 Red Admiral Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,367 (+11%)	1mo	$346,490	$146	70
553 Red Admiral Ln	0.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,367 (+11%)	3mo	$340,990	$144	69
405 Red Admiral Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,367 (+11%)	2mo	$353,990	$150	64
509 Amber Fields Dr	0.19mi	5/2.5	1,818 (-15%)	2mo	$290,990	$160	63
7433 Sunset Valley Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,184 (+3%)	0mo	$394,990	$181	62
7429 Sunset Valley Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,029 (-5%)	1mo	$369,990	$182	57
713 Wildrye Ln	0.36mi	5/2.5	1,818 (-15%)	2mo	$299,990	$165	55
7520 Lavender Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,029 (-5%)	1mo	$369,990	$182	54
7524 Lavender Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,877 (-12%)	2mo	$388,334	$207	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-69,214
• Equity at exit: $50,694

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-78,340
• Equity at exit: $29,396

Cash invested: $95,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.5 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $359,950 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 241 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,100/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,974

Max offer price $307,816

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-105	+0% $-222	+5% $-340	+10% $-457
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-329	+0% $-222	+5% $-116	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-136	base $-222	+0.5pp $-310	+1.0pp $-400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,998
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7709 Tuscarora Dr Ponder, TX	5.0	3.0	2093	$2,450	$1.17	60d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $313,990 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $313,990 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $313,990 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $313,990 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $313,990 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $313,990 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $313,990 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $313,990 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $313,990 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $313,990 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $313,990 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $313,990 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $313,990 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $313,990 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $313,990 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $313,990 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $313,990 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $313,990 Active 148 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $313,990 Active 147 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $313,990 Active 146 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $313,990 Active 145 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $313,990 Active 144 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $313,990 Active 143 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $313,990 Active 142 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $313,990 Active 140 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $313,990 Active 139 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $313,990 Active 138 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $313,990 Active 137 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $313,990 Active 136 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $313,990 Active 135 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $313,990 Active 134 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    price $313,990 Active 133 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $308,990 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $308,990 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $308,990 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $308,990 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $308,990 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $308,990 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $308,990 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $308,990 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $308,990 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $308,990 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $308,990 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $308,990 Active 118 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $308,990 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $308,990 Active 115 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $308,990 Active 112 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $308,990 Active 111 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $308,990 Active 110 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $308,990 Active 107 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,100
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,585
• − Management: −$2,585
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$8,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,062
• After-tax cash flow: $-606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Dawson home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal, making it a solid investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances and cabinetry maintenance — New or well-maintained appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Krum Early Education Center Middle Krum Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Krum H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 88/100

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 30% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Listed $301,990 Zillow