431 Grant St · Williamsport, PA 17701

$50,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1901 3,049 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COME CHECK OUT THIS FIXER UPPER WITH GOOD BONES AND REMODEL IT TO YOUR TASTE. COME TAKE A LOOK TODAY. CALL SCOTT YEAGLE @ 570-220-3298 TO SEE THIS GREAT HOME.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Built 1901
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.3% vs local median 5.6% in Williamsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#523 in PA, #4,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Williamsport Area SD (urban): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #349 of 539 in PA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Lycoming County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lycoming County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $50k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.32%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $47,345
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.56×
• Total profit: $119,804
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17701

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,965/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $566

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $860	-5% $846	+0% $832	+5% $818	+10% $804
Rent	-10% $704	-5% $768	+0% $832	+5% $896	+10% $960
Rate	-1.0pp $857	-0.5pp $845	base $832	+0.5pp $819	+1.0pp $806

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $50,000
3. 2026-02-08
   listed $90,000 Active
4. 2016-05-26
   soldstatus 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   COME CHECK OUT THIS FIXER UPPER WITH GOOD BONES AND REMODEL IT TO YOUR TASTE. COME TAKE A LOOK TODAY. CALL SCOTT YEAGLE @ 570-220-3298 TO SEE THIS GREAT HOME.

5. 2016-03-02
   listed $29,900 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   COME CHECK OUT THIS FIXER UPPER WITH GOOD BONES AND REMODEL IT TO YOUR TASTE. COME TAKE A LOOK TODAY. CALL SCOTT YEAGLE @ 570-220-3298 TO SEE THIS GREAT HOME.

6. 2000-05-31
   soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,965 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,965 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,965
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $9,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,363
• After-tax cash flow: $7,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsport Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4226460
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,637
• Composite: 34.63/100
• National rank: #5150
• State rank: #349 of 539 in PA

Livability — Williamsport

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #4841

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsport, PA
• County: Lycoming County · 43,104 people
• City population: 43,104
• Metro: Williamsport, PA
• Population (ZIP): 43,104
• Household income: $53,237
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2178.0

Population outlook (Lycoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,164 people
• By 2030: 112,221 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 107,613 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 102,950 · -9.8%
• By 2075: 92,987 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 80,924 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lycoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.5) · D 28.8% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.3pp toward R · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.5 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.61%
• Current HPI: 216.7203
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Williamsport, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — WBVAR
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $50,000 WBVAR
• 2026-02-08 Listed $90,000 WBVAR
• 2016-05-26 Sold (MLS) — WBVAR
• 2016-03-02 Listed $29,900 WBVAR
• 2000-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,965 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.