8700 West Ln #279 · Stockton, CA 95210

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $122k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 8700 West Ln #279 in Stockton, CA 95210-Imperial Mobile Home Estates, a premier 55+ community! This spacious 1440 sq ft 2-bedroom, 2-bath modular home offers comfort, charm, and fantastic amenities. The Home is equipped with a foam roof, a new water heater, a six-month-old A/C unit, and a one- year-old furnace. Inside, you can enjoy a versatile layout that features a formal living room and a family room. The kitchen is well-equipped with ample cabinet space, a kitchen peninsula, and an adjacent formal dining area featuring a built-in China cabinet and a classic chandelier. The primary suite features a sunken tub, double sinks with sconces on either side, a shower stall, and an ab

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1977
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $610
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Community has approximately 280 units; Lot is in a land-lease community (monthly land lease)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: Other; 220V in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Suncrest manufactured unit; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1977
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Foam roof
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Porch awning; Covered deck/patio; Porch; Shed(s); Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Pantry cabinet; Slab countertops; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Sunken tub; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Dual-pane windows with screens; Carpeted porch and covered deck/patio; Storage area (shed)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups inside; Insulated water heater; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $152,675 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.18%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8700 West Ln #279	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$94	99
8700 West Ln #149	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$100,000	$69	94
8700 West Ln #57	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$134,000	$93	90
8700 West Ln #171	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$133,700	$93	88
8600 West Ln #172	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (-2%)	2mo	$105,000	$74	86
8700 West Ln #174	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	1mo	$125,000	$80	84
8700 West Ln #121	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$137,900	$96	84
8600 West Ln #102	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$95,000	$66	80
8700 West Ln #251	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$120,000	$89	74
8700 West Ln #186	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	0mo	$85,000	$68	74
8700 N West Ln #166	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+8%)	11mo	$125,000	$81	71
8700 West Ln #67	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	14mo	$130,000	$85	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,666
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $88,592
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95210

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9211 Dalewood St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	898	$1,495	$1.66	3d	1	0.30mi
1031 Fallbrook Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	962	$1,695	$1.76	44d	1	0.31mi
1768 Crestwood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,500	$1.80	44d	1	0.33mi
1857 Crestwood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,450	$1.57	44d	1	0.35mi
7936 Montauban Ave Unit Labs Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	10d	1	0.56mi
718 Bedlow Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	929	$1,250	$1.35	44d	1	0.63mi
718 Bedlow Dr Unit 720 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	929	$1,250	$1.35	3d	1	0.63mi
326 Sue Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1153	$2,495	$2.16	21d	1	0.74mi
326 Sue Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1153	$2,495	$2.16	23d	1	0.74mi
7926 Diana Marie Dr Unit 7926 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	3d	1	0.87mi
7409 Village Green Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1141	$2,000	$1.75	44d	1	0.97mi
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,625	$1.35	44d	1	1.11mi
8446 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,300	$1.81	44d	1	1.15mi
7620 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,538	$1.86	44d	1	1.22mi
6807 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	980	$1,750	$1.79	23d	1	1.25mi
8626 Acapulco Way Unit 4 Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,895	$1.64	44d	1	1.38mi
8650 Acapulco Way Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,000	$1.82	44d	1	1.39mi
742 Ponce De Leon Ave Apt 2 Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,825	$1.52	10d	1	1.39mi
764 E Swain Rd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,675	$1.83	10d	1	1.40mi
764 E Swain Rd Unit SW-12 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,655	$1.81	19d	1	1.40mi
764 E Swain Rd Unit SW-05 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,675	$1.83	3d	1	1.40mi
827 Dundee Way Unit 827 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	3d	1	1.49mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,881
• − Management: −$1,881
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $3,458
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$830
• After-tax cash flow: $4,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,549
• Household income: $67,991
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1817.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Asian 31% Two or more races 21% White 13% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.31%
• Current HPI: 349.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.09%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B